{"id":1190,"date":"2021-10-14T15:38:37","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T07:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aif.amtbbs.org\/?p=1190"},"modified":"2021-10-14T15:38:37","modified_gmt":"2021-10-14T07:38:37","slug":"1969-2021%e5%b9%b4%ef%bc%8c53%e5%b1%8a%e8%af%ba%e8%b4%9d%e5%b0%94%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%a5%96%e5%85%a8%e6%99%af%e5%bc%8f%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aif.amtbbs.org\/index.php\/2021\/10\/14\/1190\/","title":{"rendered":"1969-2021\u5e74\uff0c53\u5c4a\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5168\u666f\u5f0f\u56de\u987e"},"content":{"rendered":"<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"89219\">\n<section>\n<section data-width=\"100%\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1191\" src=\"https:\/\/aif.amtbbs.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/4ffce04d92a4d6cb21c1494cdfcd6dc1-46.jpg\" width=\"900\" height=\"383\" alt=\"\u56fe\u7247\" title=\"0-00.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aiforumimage.oss-cn-shanghai.aliyuncs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/4ffce04d92a4d6cb21c1494cdfcd6dc1-46.jpg 900w, https:\/\/aiforumimage.oss-cn-shanghai.aliyuncs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/4ffce04d92a4d6cb21c1494cdfcd6dc1-46-300x128.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aiforumimage.oss-cn-shanghai.aliyuncs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/4ffce04d92a4d6cb21c1494cdfcd6dc1-46-768x327.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section data-role=\"paragraph\">\u5317\u4eac\u65f6\u95f42021\u5e7410\u670811\u65e518\u70b900\u5206\uff0c2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5956\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6b63\u5f0f\u63ed\u6653\u3002\u745e\u5178\u7687\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u5c06<strong>2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88David Card \uff0cJoshua D. 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data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1969\u5e74\uff1a\u62c9\u683c\u7eb3\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5e0c\u548c\u7b80\u00b7\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u9996\u5c4a\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7531\u632a\u5a01\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u62c9\u683c\u7eb3\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5e0c\uff08Ragnar Frisch\uff09\u548c\u8377\u5170\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7b80\u00b7\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\uff08Jan Tinbergen\uff09\u5171\u540c\u83b7\u5f97\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5229\u7528\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section 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data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7b80\u00b7\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u7b80\u00b7\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u662f\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u8005\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed61903\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u8377\u5170\u6d77\u7259\uff0c1922\u5e74\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u8003\u5165\u4e86\u8377\u5170\u83b1\u987f\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u5e08\u4ece\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u57c3\u4f26\u8d39\u65af\u7279\u5b66\u4e60\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u7269\u7406\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u540e\u671f\u8f6c\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b80\u00b7\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u4e3b\u8981\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong>\u65e9\u57281936\u5e74\uff0c\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u5c31\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u542b24\u4e2a\u8054\u7acb\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u53cd\u6620\u5404\u7c7b\u4e0d\u540c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4ed6\u521b\u7acb\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\u4e0e\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u628a\u5bf9\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u52b3\u52a1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u603b\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u51fa\u53e3\u4e0e\u8fdb\u53e3\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u901a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ede\u540e\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8be5\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ecd\u4e0d\u591f\u7cbe\u786e\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u52a8\u6001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u548c\u201c\u86db\u7f51\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u3002<\/strong>\u86db\u7f51\u7406\u8bba\u5f15\u5165\u65f6\u95f4\u56e0\u7d20\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7ade\u4e89\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u5355\u4e2a\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u6539\u53d8\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u5546\u54c1\u4ea7\u91cf\uff0c\u6545\u672c\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7531\u672c\u671f\u4ea7\u91cf\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u672c\u671f\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u7531\u4e0a\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u86db\u7f51\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\uff0c\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u5b58\u5728\u86db\u7f51\u578b\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u653f\u5e9c\u5b9e\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u5e72\u9884\u6216\u8005\u5f15\u5165\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u8c03\u8282\u3002\u6211\u56fd\u7684\u732a\u8089\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5373\u662f\u201c\u86db\u7f51\u5468\u671f\u201d\u7684\u5178\u578b\u53cd\u6620\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e09\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u6cd5\u5219\u6307\u5bfc\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u3002<\/strong>\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u6cd5\u5219\uff0c\u5373\u4e3a\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u8fd0\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u6548\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u591a\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5fc5\u987b\u81f3\u5c11\u5e94\u7528\u591a\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u4e14\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u8be5\u6cd5\u5219\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8bd5\u56fe\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u5b9e\u73b0\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u60f3\u4e3a\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bf9\u540e\u6765\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u89e3\u4f53\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/p>\n<section 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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1971\u5e74\uff1a\u897f\u8499\u00b7\u5e93\u5179\u6d85\u8328<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u897f\u8499\u00b7\u5e93\u5179\u6d85\u8328\uff08Simon 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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1972\u5e74\uff1a\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u548c\u80af\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u7f57<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u82f1\u56fd\u4eba\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\uff08John Hicks\uff09\uff0c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u80af\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u7f57\uff08Kenneth Arrow\uff09\u5171\u540c\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u798f\u5229\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u83b7\u5f971972\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u5e0c\u514b\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u662f\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u521b\u5efa\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5fae\u89c2\u5316\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4e8e1904\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u6c83\u91cc\u514b\uff0c1926\u5e74\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u83b7\u5f97\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1932\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u9996\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86IS-LM\u6a21\u578b\uff0c<\/strong>\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4ed6\u4e3a\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u901a\u8bba\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u6240\u505a\u7684\u70b9\u8bc4\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4e66\u8bc4\u540d\u4e3a\u300a\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5148\u751f\u4e0e\u201c\u53e4\u5178\u5b66\u6d3e\u201d\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d7\u542f\u53d1\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u300b\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86IS-LM\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bf9\u300a\u901a\u8bba\u300b\u90e8\u5206\u5185\u5bb9\u91cd\u65b0\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u628a\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u5206\u6790\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5b8f\u89c2\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e<\/strong>\u30021939\u5e74\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u300a\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0e\u8d44\u672c\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u5c31\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u3001\u4fe1\u4efb\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u6027\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u5747\u8861\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u6a21\u578b\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u539f\u6709\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u591a\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u9759\u6001\u5206\u6790\u7684\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5f15\u5165\u591a\u671f\u52a8\u6001\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u524d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u6c9f\u901a\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u901a\u884c\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6865\u6881\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e09\uff0c\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u5bf9\u798f\u5229\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8d21\u732e\u5de8\u5927\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u63a8\u8fdb\u4e86\u798f\u5229\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u5f15\u5165\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u66f2\u7ebf\u3001\u65e0\u5dee\u5f02\u66f2\u7ebf\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b49\u3002\u4e8c\u662f\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5269\u4f59\u3002\u4e09\u662f\u5bf9\u798f\u5229\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8865\u507f\u539f\u5219\u7684\u8865\u5145\u3002\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u589e\u52a0\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u798f\u5229\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u798f\u5229\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f83\u96be\u5224\u65ad\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u8fbe\u5230\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7a0e\u6536\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u8865\u507f\u5728\u53d8\u52a8\u4e2d\u5229\u76ca\u53d7\u635f\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u80af\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u7f57<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u963f\u7f57\u662f\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u5bf9\u540e\u7eed\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c<\/strong>\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8d21\u732e\u5305\u62ec\u5185\u751f\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u4fdd\u9669\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u3002\u963f\u7f57\u4e8e1921\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u83b7\u5f97\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5e02\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u548c\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6587\u79d1\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u963f\u7f57\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u963f\u7f57\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u798f\u5229\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u201d\u3002<\/strong>\u6b64\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5f3a\u8c03\u9009\u62e9\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7406\u6027\u5206\u6790\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u504f\u597d\u8fd8\u662f\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u5f0f\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4e14\u65b9\u6848\u90fd\u5177\u5907\u4f20\u9012\u6027\uff0c\u5373ABC\u4e09\u79cd\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\u82e5A\u4f18\u4e8eB\uff0c\u800cB\u4f18\u4e8eC\uff0c\u5219A\u4f18\u4e8eC\u3002\u4f46\u963f\u7f57\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u6295\u7968\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u4f20\u9012\u6027\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u9009\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e2dA\u9ad8\u4e8eB\uff0cB\u9ad8\u4e8eC\uff0c\u4f46\u62ffA\/C\u6bd4\u8f83\u65f6\uff0cA\u5374\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6295\u7968\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u504f\u597d\u4f20\u9012\u6027\u3002\u963f\u7f57\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u63a8\u7406\u8bc1\u660e\uff1a\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4f53\u81ea\u6709\u5176\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5404\u9879\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u504f\u597d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4eba\u504f\u597d\u4e0d\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u504f\u597d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u963f\u7f57\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u201d\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u201c\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u7531\u6cd5\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u74e6\u5c14\u62c9\u65af\u4e8e1874\u5e74\u9996\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u73b0\u4ee3\u6982\u5ff5\u5219\u4e8e20\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u7531\u963f\u7f57\u4e0e\u5fb7\u5e03\u9c81\u7b49\u4eba\u5efa\u7acb\u3002\u963f\u7f57\u5728\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u4e00\u822c\u7ade\u4e89\u5206\u6790\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u73b0\u5b9e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u548c\u6c42\u89e3\u4e86\u201c\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6210\u679c\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u963f\u7f57-\u5fb7\u5e03\u9c81\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u5b9a\u7406\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u963f\u7f57\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u6027\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7406\u89e3\u4e16\u754c\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8d70\u5411\u6570\u7406\u5316\u3001\u5de5\u5177\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u5fd7\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1973\u5e74\uff1a\u534e\u897f\u91cc\u00b7\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u534e\u897f\u91cc\u00b7\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\uff08Wassily Leontief\uff09\uff0c\u4fc4\u88d4\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u8fd0\u7528\uff0c\u83b7\u5f971973\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u4e8e1906\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u4fc4\u56fd\u5f7c\u5f97\u5821\uff0c\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u5f7c\u5f97\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c19\u5c81\u4fbf\u53d6\u5f97\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u30021928\u5e74\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u67cf\u6797\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u679c\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\u3002<\/strong>\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ebf\u6027\u4ee3\u6570\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5404\u79cd\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u6784\u5efa\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u8868\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u4e2a\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u6ce2\u52a8\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u6574\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u5206\u6790\u4ee5\u6570\u91cf\u5173\u7cfb\u8054\u7cfb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u90e8\u95e8\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5b83\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd8\u80fd\u7814\u7a76\u73af\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d38\u6613\u7b49\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u540e\u6765\u5b66\u8005\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u542f\u53d1\u3002<\/strong>\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u57281953\u5e74\u52301956\u5e74\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u674e\u5609\u56fe\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f18\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u8d6b\u514b\u6b47\u5c14-\u4fc4\u6797\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u7980\u8d4b\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u548c\u6700\u5bc6\u96c6\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u51fa\u53e3\u8d44\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u8fdb\u53e3\u52b3\u52a8\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u4f46\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u5229\u7528\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6218\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u8d38\u6613\u53d1\u5c55\u72b6\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u540e\u5374\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u662f\u8d44\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u662f\u52b3\u52a8\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u8fd9\u88ab\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u4e4b\u8c1c\u201d\u3002\u8be5\u8c1c\u9898\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba8\u8bba\u548c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u52b3\u52a8\u719f\u7ec3\u8bf4\u3001\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u8bf4\u3001\u6280\u672f\u5dee\u8ddd\u8bf4\u3001\u4ea7\u54c1\u5468\u671f\u8bf4\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1974\u5e74\uff1a\u7eb2\u7eb3\u00b7\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u548c\u54c8\u8036\u514b<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u7eb2\u7eb3\u00b7\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\uff08Gunnar Myrdal\uff09\u548c\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u91cc\u5e0c\u00b7\u5965\u53e4\u65af\u7279\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u54c8\u8036\u514b\uff08Friedrich August von Hayek\uff09\u7531\u4e8e\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e92\u76f8\u4f9d\u8d56\u800c\u83b7\u5956\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7eb2\u7eb3\u00b7\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u662f\u745e\u5178\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u201c\u5faa\u73af\u79ef\u7d2f\u56e0\u679c\u539f\u7406\u201d\u662f\u4ed6\u6700\u5177\u76db\u540d\u7684\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u91cd\u89c6\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u4e8e1898\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u745e\u5178\uff0c1923\u5e74\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u65af\u5fb7\u54e5\u5c14\u6469\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u5b66\u9662\u30021925-1929\u5e74\u8d74\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u5faa\u73af\u79ef\u7d2f\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c<\/strong>\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u3002\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4ece\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u5f85\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5219\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5404\u8981\u7d20\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u76f8\u4e92\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u79ef\u7d2f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8981\u7d20\u6539\u53d8\u4f1a\u5e26\u52a8\u53e6\u4e00\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8981\u7d20\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u4f1a\u53cd\u9988\u7ed9\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u8981\u7d20\u4ece\u800c\u5faa\u73af\u52a0\u5f3a\u8be5\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u793e\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u6cbf\u7740\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u65ad\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u5e38\u6001\u4e0d\u662f\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5faa\u73af\u5f80\u590d\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u7d2f\u79ef\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u6709\u7740\u6781\u5176\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff1a\u9ed1\u4eba\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u628a\u767d\u79cd\u4eba\u5bf9\u9ed1\u79cd\u4eba\u7684\u6b67\u89c6\u4e0e\u9ed1\u79cd\u4eba\u76f8\u5bf9\u7269\u8d28\u6587\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u4f4e\u4e0b\u5206\u6790\u4e3a\u5faa\u73af\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5faa\u73af\u79ef\u7d2f\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u8fd8\u80fd\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5148\u9a71\uff0c\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4e8e1968\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u76843\u5377\u672c\u7684\u300a\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u620f\u5267\uff1a\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2b\u56f0\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u300b\uff0c\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u542f\u53d1\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e09\uff0c\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4ee5\u603b\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e0e\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u52a8\u6001\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u662f\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u6279\u5224\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u548c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u548c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7f3a\u9677\u5728\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u5f15\u5165\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u201c\u6295\u8d44\u201d\u548c\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u589e\u503c\u548c\u8d2c\u503c\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8f83\u4e3a\u7ec6\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f2a\u8fbe\u5c14\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u4e8b\u524d\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4e8b\u540e\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u6001\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u91cc\u5e0c\u00b7\u5965\u53e4\u65af\u7279\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u54c8\u8036\u514b<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u662f\u5965\u5730\u5229\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u3002<\/strong>\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u4e8e1899\u5e74\u751f\u4e8e\u5965\u5730\u5229\u7ef4\u4e5f\u7eb3\u4e00\u4e2a\u6770\u51fa\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u5bb6\u5ead\u30021921\u5e74\u548c1923\u5e74\u4e8e\u7ef4\u4e5f\u7eb3\u5927\u5b66\u5206\u522b\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u6db5\u76d6\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong>\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u4ee5\u7c73\u585e\u65af\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u7814\u7a76\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u5965\u5730\u5229\u5b66\u6d3e\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5178\u8303\u30021931\u5e74\u4ed6\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c1941\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u7eaf\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u8d77\u6e90\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u6240\u4fc3\u6210\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u5339\u914d\u4e0d\u5f53\u3002\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5f53\u65f6\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u9a70\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6279\u8bc4\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u4ed6\u63d0\u5021\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u4e3a70\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ede\u80c0\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u5bf9\u82f1\u7f8e\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u76db\u884c\u63d0\u51fa\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u6301\u7eed\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u5c06\u7834\u574f\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u6ede\u80c0\u5371\u673a\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u4e3b\u6d41\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5f00\u59cb\u5931\u7075\uff0c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5f97\u5230\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7f57\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u91cc\u6839\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u9996\u76f8\u739b\u683c\u5229\u7279\u00b7\u6492\u5207\u5c14\u90fd\u662f\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u548c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u7684\u8bba\u6218\u662f20\u4e16\u7eaa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u4e43\u81f3\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u4eec\u6d25\u6d25\u4e50\u9053\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<strong>\u4e09\u662f\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6770\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4e3b\u5f20\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u6279\u8bc4\u79d1\u5b66\u4e07\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5373\u628a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f3a\u52a0\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u64b0\u5199\u4e86\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53cd\u9769\u547d\u2014\u2014\u7406\u6027\u6ee5\u7528\u4e4b\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u751f\u642c\u786c\u5957\u7269\u8d28\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u81f3\u793e\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1975\u5e74\uff1a\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947\u548c\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5217\u5965\u5c3c\u5fb7\u00b7\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947\uff08Leonid Kantorovich\uff09\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u57281939\u5e74\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u4eab\u8a89\u5168\u7403\u7684\u7ebf\u5f62\u89c4\u5212\u8981\u70b9\uff0c\u5bf9\u8d44\u6e90\u6700\u4f18\u5206\u914d\u7406\u8bba\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8d21\u732e\u3001\u3002\u4f73\u6797\u00b7\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\uff08Tjalling Koopmans\uff09\u5c06\u6570\u7406\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6210\u529f\u8fd0\u7528\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8ba1\u91cf\u5b66\uff0c\u5bf9\u8d44\u6e90\u6700\u4f18\u5206\u914d\u7406\u8bba\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5217\u5965\u5c3c\u5fb7\u00b7\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947\u4e8e1912\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u4fc4\u56fd\u5f7c\u5f97\u5821\uff0c\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u5217\u5b81\u683c\u52d2\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\uff0c23\u5c81\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ee5\u89e3\u4e58\u6570\u6cd5\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u4f18\u5316\u89c4\u5212\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5927\u95e8\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5212\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d44\u6e90\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u751f\u4ea7\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ea7\u51fa\u4ef7\u503c\u6700\u5927\u5316\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5212\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u6c42\u51fa\u6bcf\u79cd\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u4ea7\u91cf\u3002\u800c\u5728\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f15\u5165\u201c\u5f71\u5b50\u4ef7\u683c\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u201c\u56e0\u5b50\u5206\u89e3\u201d\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5212\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u88ab\u4ed6\u5b8c\u5584\u5e76\u63a8\u5e7f\u81f3\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u5efa\u7acb\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u628a\u751f\u4ea7\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u8d44\u6e90\u7ea6\u675f\u548c\u6240\u6c42\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u4ee5\u7ebf\u6027\u65b9\u7a0b\u8868\u8fbe\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6c42\u89e3\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\u6c42\u89e3\u5f97\u51fa\u6700\u4f18\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947\u95ee\u9898\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u5927\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u754c\u90fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u5ba2\u89c2\u5236\u7ea6\u4f30\u4ef7\u201d\u5bf9\u798f\u5229\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/strong>\u5eb7\u6258\u7f57\u7ef4\u5947\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5212\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u5ba2\u89c2\u5236\u7ea6\u4f30\u4ef7\u201d\uff0c\u5b83\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4f30\u4ef7\uff0c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u5ba2\u89c2\u5236\u7ea6\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f30\u4ef7\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5728\u6700\u4f18\u8ba1\u5212\u4e0b\u6bcf\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\u751f\u4ea7\u4e2d\u6240\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u4f30\u4ef7\uff0c\u7531\u52b3\u52a8\u6d88\u8017\u91cf\u4e0e\u7269\u8d28\u6d88\u8017\u91cf\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u5ba2\u89c2\u5236\u7ea6\u4f30\u4ef7\u662f\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u7a00\u7f3a\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5408\u7406\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u8fdb\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u5168\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u5bf9\u8d44\u6e90\u6700\u4f18\u5229\u7528\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u4f73\u6797\u00b7\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8ba1\u91cf\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u6700\u4f18\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5e7f\u53d7\u5b66\u754c\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/strong>\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af1910\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u8377\u5170\uff0c1927\u5e74\u5165\u8bfb\u4e4c\u7279\u52d2\u652f\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u7406\u7cfb\uff0c\u6b21\u5e74\uff0c\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u4ee5\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u83b7\u5f97\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u6570\u7406\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/strong>\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u5bf9\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b\u975e\u5e38\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u7ebf\u6027\u5fae\u5206\u548c\u5dee\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4f46\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u800c\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u7528\u5f52\u7eb3\u6cd5\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4fee\u6b63\u5b8c\u5584\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u4ee5\u8ba1\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u5bf9\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u548c\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u8bba\u7ecf\u6d4e\u79d1\u5b66\u72b6\u51b5\u300b\u4e09\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u4e86\u6700\u4f18\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u6700\u4f18\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6b64\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ee5\u751f\u4ea7\u4e3a\u6700\u4f18\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u65af\u5c06\u6700\u4f18\u6d88\u8d39\u7eb3\u5165\u8003\u5bdf\uff0c\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u89c4\u5212\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8003\u8651\u77ed\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8de8\u5ea6\u957f\u8fbe\u51e0\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u957f\u671f\u89c4\u5212\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e09\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u6d3b\u52a8\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\uff0c\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u8fdb\u884c\u6307\u5bfc\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4e8e1951\u5e74\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6709\u5173\u4e13\u5bb6\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u8c03\u5ea6\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u5206\u6790\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u5c06\u6d3b\u52a8\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b\u7684\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u6cd5\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5212\u76f8\u878d\u5408\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6d3b\u52a8\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u5546\u54c1\u6d3b\u52a8\u6c42\u5f97\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\uff0c\u4e3a\u5236\u5b9a\u6700\u4f18\u8ba1\u5212\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u8fd8\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u6c61\u67d3\u3001\u4fdd\u62a4\u73af\u5883\u3001\u533a\u57df\u89c4\u5212\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u6709\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1976\u5e74\uff1a\u7c73\u5c14\u987f\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u7c73\u5c14\u987f\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\uff08Milton Friedman\uff09\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\uff0c\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u5728\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u655930\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u5851\u9020\u6210\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\uff0c\u529b\u5021\u81ea\u7531\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u8bf4\u3002<\/strong>\u8d27\u5e01\u4e3b\u4e49\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u957f\u671f\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u53ea\u5f71\u54cd\u7269\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e0e\u4ea7\u51fa\u6c34\u5e73\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u603b\u91cf\u5e94\u8be5\u4e0e\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u503c\u603b\u91cf\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u503c\u603b\u91cf\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u5c06\u5f15\u8d77\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u5b83\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u653f\u7b56\u9009\u62e9\u9075\u5faa\u201c\u5355\u4e00\u539f\u5219\u201d\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u7684\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5e94\u5f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5e94\u5f53\u516c\u5e03\u7ed9\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f15\u5bfc\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u201d\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u7edd\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u201d\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u8fb9\u9645\u6d88\u8d39\u503e\u5411\u9012\u51cf\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u4f46\u5e93\u5179\u6d85\u8328\u7b49\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u5374\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fb9\u9645\u6d88\u8d39\u503e\u5411\u7b49\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u503e\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u3002\u800c\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u96be\u9898\u3002\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u5185\u6db5\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u884c\u4e3a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5076\u7136\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ea\u6709\u9884\u671f\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u672a\u6765\u6c38\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u624d\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u6d88\u8d39\u3002\u800c\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u6536\u5165\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u6d88\u8d39\u884c\u4e3a\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1977\u5e74\uff1a\u8d1d\u8482\u00b7\u4fc4\u6797\u548c\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u7c73\u5fb7<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<p data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>\u8d1d\u8482\u00b7\u4fc4\u6797<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u8d1d\u8482\u00b7\u4fc4\u6797\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u8457\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u3002<\/strong>\u4fc4\u6797\u4e8e1899\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u745e\u5178\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u5728\u9686\u5fb7\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u65af\u5fb7\u54e5\u5c14\u6469\u5546\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6df1\u9020\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4fc4\u6797\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a<strong>\u4e00\u662f\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u7980\u8d4b\u5047\u8bf4\u3002<\/strong>\u5373\u4e00\u56fd\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u7531\u5176\u8981\u7d20\u7980\u8d4b\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u5206\u5de5\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u5206\u5de5\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u5929\u7136\u7980\u8d4b\u7684\u5236\u7ea6\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ef7\u683c\u5747\u7b49\u5b9a\u7406\u3002<\/strong>\u4ef7\u683c\u5747\u7b49\u5b9a\u7406\u4e5f\u662f\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u7980\u8d4b\u8bf4\u5f15\u7533\u7684\u547d\u9898\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u5c06\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u5404\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u7edd\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u5e73\u5747\u5316\u3002\u4fc4\u6797\u4e5f\u8bf4\u660e\u8981\u7d20\u4ef7\u683c\u5747\u7b49\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6307\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u5e73\u7b49\u5316\uff0c\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8d38\u6613\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u5408\u7406\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u6cd5\u771f\u6b63\u89e3\u51b3\u8981\u7d20\u5728\u5730\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u975e\u5747\u7b49\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u7c73\u5fb7<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u7c73\u5fb7\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u8005\u3002<\/strong>1907\u5e74\uff0c\u7c73\u5fb7\u751f\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u5df4\u65af\u5e02\uff0c1930-1931\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u5251\u6865\u4e09\u4e00\u5b66\u9662\u5b66\u4e60\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7c73\u5fb7\u6700\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\u5e94\u5f53\u5305\u542b\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5373\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u3002<strong>\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e73\u8861\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u5185\u5b9e\u73b0\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u7269\u4ef7\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0a\u5347\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u4f53\u666f\u6c14\u3002<\/strong>\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5931\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4fdd\u6301\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u5305\u62ec\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0e\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u201c\u9006\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u8282\u201d\u76f8\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u65f6\uff0c\u6269\u5927\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u62c9\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u5219\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u9632\u6b62\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\u3002\u5bf9\u5916\u5e73\u8861\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u5916\u6536\u652f\u603b\u4f53\u65e2\u65e0\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u53c8\u65e0\u76c8\u4f59\uff0c\u6c47\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7c73\u5fb7\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u5185\u5916\u540c\u65f6\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5e94\u7528\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b26\u5408\u4e01\u4f2f\u6839\u6cd5\u5219\u3002\u5728\u7c73\u5fb7\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e76\u672a\u5c06\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e73\u8861\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u901a\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u7c73\u5fb7\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u66f4\u52a0\u5168\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1978\u5e74\uff1a\u8d6b\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u897f\u8499<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u8d6b\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u897f\u8499\uff08Herbert Simon\uff09\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u51b3\u7b56\u7ba1\u7406\u5927\u5e08\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u5021\u5bfc\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5438\u6536\u53e4\u5178\u7ba1\u7406\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u800c\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u95e8\u8fb9\u7f18\u5b66\u79d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u897f\u8499\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u542b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u804c\u80fd\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u897f\u8499\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u8ba1\u5212\u804c\u80fd\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u897f\u8499\u63d0\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\u624d\u662f\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u9996\u8981\u804c\u80fd\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u5df2\u77e5\u6700\u4f18\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c<\/strong>\u897f\u8499\u63d0\u51fa\u5728\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u9650\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7a77\u4e3e\u4e00\u5207\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u4ece\u5df2\u77e5\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u6ee1\u8db3\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u3002<strong>\u4e09\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u201d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c<\/strong>\u5373\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u975e\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ecb\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u201c\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u201d\u3002\u56e0\u800c\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4eba\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u9650\u5236\u3001\u52a8\u673a\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8db3\u591f\u597d\u7684\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1979\u5e74\uff1a\u897f\u5965\u591a\u00b7\u8212\u5c14\u8328\u548c\u963f\u745f\u00b7\u5218\u6613\u65af\u7235\u58eb<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u897f\u5965\u591a\u00b7\u8212\u5c14\u8328(Theodore Schultz)\u4e0e\u963f\u745f\u00b7\u5218\u6613\u65af(Sir Arthur Lewis)\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u540c\u5206\u4eab1979\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u897f\u5965\u591a\u00b7\u8212\u5c14\u8328<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u8212\u5c14\u8328\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u5176\u4fa7\u91cd\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u519c\u4e1a\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u6548\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8212\u5c14\u8328\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u519c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u548c\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u519c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8212\u5c14\u8328\u4e0e\u4e00\u822c\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u519c\u4e1a\u53ef\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f20\u7edf\u519c\u4e1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4f5c\u7528\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u4ee3\u519c\u4e1a\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u519c\u4e1a\u5206\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u8fc7\u6e21\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u519c\u4e1a\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u519c\u4e1a\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6ede\u7684\u5c0f\u519c\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5176\u5229\u6da6\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u76f8\u5bf9\u843d\u540e\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u519c\u4e1a\u8981\u83b7\u5f97\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5176\u51fa\u8def\u5728\u4e8e\u5f15\u8fdb\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u5e76\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u519c\u4e1a\u3002\u8fd9\u8981\u6c42\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5305\u62ec\u7269\u8d28\u4e0a\u7684\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u5f15\u8fdb\u548c\u57f9\u517b\u5177\u6709\u73b0\u4ee3\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u80fd\u8fd0\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8212\u5c14\u8328\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u540e\u4e16\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u5927\u542f\u53d1\u610f\u4e49\uff0c<\/strong>\u5728\u8212\u5c14\u8328\u4e4b\u524d\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u5c06\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u8003\u8651\u5230\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u3002\u8212\u5c14\u8328\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u6295\u8d44:\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u300b\uff081971\uff09\u4e2d\u5c06\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7269\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u800c\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8d44\u672c\u5f62\u6001\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u4eba\u6240\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u6280\u80fd\u3001\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u5065\u5eb7\u7b49\u3002\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4e3b\u8981\u5728\u4e8e\u540e\u5929\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u57f9\u517b\uff0c\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u751f\u4ea7\u652f\u51fa\u800c\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u4ece\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u6280\u80fd\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u963f\u745f\u00b7\u5218\u6613\u65af\u7235\u58eb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5218\u6613\u65af1915\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u82f1\u5c5e\u897f\u5370\u5ea6\u7fa4\u5c9b\uff08\u73b0\u4e3a\u5723\u5362\u897f\u4e9a\uff09\u30021932\u5e74\uff0c\u5218\u6613\u65af\u5230\u82f1\u56fd\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u5e76\u5206\u522b\u4e8e1937\u5e74\u30011940\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e76\u7559\u6821\u4efb\u6559\u76f4\u81f31948\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5218\u6613\u65af\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u4e8c\u5143\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c<\/strong>\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5206\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u4f9d\u9760\u81ea\u7ed9\u81ea\u8db3\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u9690\u853d\u6027\u5931\u4e1a\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u4ee3\u8868\u73b0\u4ee3\u5de5\u4e1a\u4e2d\u4ee5\u96c7\u4f63\u5de5\u4eba\u6269\u5927\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5218\u6613\u65af\u7a81\u7834\u4e86\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e2d\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u8d2b\u56f0\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u521d\u671f\u4f20\u7edf\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u9690\u853d\u6027\u5931\u4e1a\u4f7f\u5f97\u5176\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b58\u5728\u201c\u65e0\u9650\u4f9b\u7ed9\u201d\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u73b0\u4ee3\u90e8\u95e8\u4e2d\u975e\u719f\u7ec3\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u8d44\u6c34\u5e73\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5c31\u4f1a\u6e90\u6e90\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u6d8c\u5411\u73b0\u4ee3\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u8d44\u672c\u5229\u6da6\u5f97\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u65e9\u671f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u6536\u5165\u96be\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u90e8\u95e8\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea2\u5229\u9010\u6b65\u88ab\u73b0\u4ee3\u90e8\u95e8\u5438\u6536\u540e\uff0c\u539f\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u4f1a\u9010\u6b65\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e2d\u4e00\u5143\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u65b0\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1980\u5e74\uff1a\u52b3\u4f26\u65af\u00b7\u514b\u83b1\u56e0<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1980\u5e74\u52b3\u4f26\u65af\u00b7\u514b\u83b1\u56e0(Lawrence Klein)\u56e0\u5176\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u6210\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u4ee5\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u6570\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u73b0\u5b9e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u636e\u5efa\u7acb\u5b8f\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong>1942\u5e74\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u4ee5\u4f18\u5f02\u6210\u7ee9\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u5e76\u5728\u5176\u540e\u8fdb\u5165\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u5728\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\u4fbf\u5b8c\u6210\u5b8c\u6210\u5b66\u4f4d\u8bba\u6587\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u6ce2\u52a8\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\u5747\u505a\u51fa\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong>\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u5148\u540e\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd1929\u4e001952\u5e74\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u300b\uff081955\uff09\u3001\u300a\u8054\u5408\u738b\u56fd\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u300b\uff081961\uff09\u3001\u300a\u6c83\u987f\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u5355\u4f4d\u6a21\u578b\u300b\uff081967\uff09\u3001\u300a\u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65afSSRC\u6a21\u578b\u300b\uff081969\uff09\u7b49\u591a\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5168\u65b9\u9762\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5f00\u53d1\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u5411\u505a\u51fa\u8ba1\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1981\u5e74\uff1a\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u6258\u5bbe<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u6258\u5bbe(James Tobin)\u56e0\u5176\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u7406\u8bba\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6770\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u5bb6\u5ead\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u884c\u4e3a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u5206\u6790\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u6258\u5bbe\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u9886\u519b\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5176\u8457\u540d\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5bb6\u5ead\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5982\u4f55\u51b3\u5b9a\u8d44\u4ea7\u6784\u6210\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u660e\u786e\u63d0\u51fa\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\u662f\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8d44\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u6258\u5bbe\u7a0e\u3001\u6258\u5bbeQ\u6bd4\u7387\u3001\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14-\u6258\u5bbe\u6548\u5e94\u7b49\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u9610\u8ff0\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7cfb\u5217\u7406\u8bba\u53ca\u8d22\u653f\u4e0e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5728\u8d44\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6258\u5bbe\u4e3b\u8981\u63d0\u51fa\u8d44\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u9996\u6b21\u5728\u6258\u5bbe\u300a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5f85\u98ce\u9669\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u504f\u597d\u300b\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u6295\u673a\u6027\u8d27\u5e01\u9700\u6c42\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u6839\u636e\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u504f\u597d\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u51fa\u4e8e\u6295\u673a\u52a8\u673a\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u5229\u606f\u7387\u5448\u53cd\u5411\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u504f\u597d\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8d44\u4ea7\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u6258\u5bbe\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u6301\u6709\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u662f\u5206\u6563\u800c\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u63a8\u5bfc\u8bc1\u660e\u8ffd\u6c42\u6700\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u89c4\u907f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5fc5\u5b9a\u6301\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u4e0d\u8981\u628a\u6240\u6709\u9e21\u86cb\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7bee\u5b50\u201d\u3002\u6258\u5bbe\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u5229\u606f\u7387\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6295\u673a\u9700\u6c42\u5448\u53cd\u5411\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e3a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u504f\u597d\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u5229\u606f\u7387\u7684\u76f8\u53cd\u5173\u7cfb\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002<strong>\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u4ea7\u51fa\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6258\u5bbe\u4e3b\u8981\u63d0\u51fa\u6258\u5bbeQ\u6bd4\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14-\u6258\u5bbe\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/strong>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u6258\u5bbeQ\u6bd4\u7387\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u91cd\u7f6e\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u6bd4\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u5c06\u5e26\u52a8\u4f01\u4e1a\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6Q\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5927\u4e8e1\uff0c\u5219\u4f01\u4e1a\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u6269\u5f20\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14-\u6258\u5bbe\u6548\u5e94\u5219\u6307\u51fa\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u5f53\u540d\u4e49\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u51cf\u5c11\u8d27\u5e01\u6301\u6709\u4ece\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u523a\u6fc0\u4ea7\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u3002<strong>\u5728\u5916\u6c47\u4ea4\u6613\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6258\u5bbe\u5d07\u5c1a\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u6765\u5f25\u8865\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u6258\u5bbe\u7a0e\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c<\/strong>\u5176\u5b9e\u8d28\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u8d27\u5916\u6c47\u4ea4\u6613\u5f81\u6536\u5168\u7403\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7a0e\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u9488\u5bf9\u77ed\u671f\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u5f80\u8fd4\u6d41\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u5f81\u7a0e\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u51cf\u5c11\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u6295\u673a\u6027\u4ea4\u6613\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6027\u6536\u5165\u518d\u5206\u914d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1982\u5e74\uff1a\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1982\u5e74\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2(George Stigler)\u56e0\u5176\u5bf9\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u529f\u80fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\u7ba1\u5236\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2\u5904\u4e8e\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u9635\u8425\uff0c\u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\u653f\u5e9c\u7ba1\u5236\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u662f\u4f4e\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u5b9e\u884c\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u5784\u65ad\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7ba1\u5236\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/strong>\u57281971\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ba1\u5236\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2\u6307\u51fa\u653f\u5e9c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5728\u4e3a\u5168\u90e8\u4eba\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52a1\u62df\u5b9a\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6cd5\u89c4\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u8fd0\u884c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\u5c06\u5927\u6982\u7387\u8bf4\u670d\u653f\u5e9c\u4f7f\u7528\u516c\u5171\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u6743\u5229\u6765\u6539\u5584\u5176\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6cd5\u6709\u76ca\u4e8e\u7279\u6b8a\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u6216\u7279\u5b9a\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u670d\u52a1\u4e8e\u516c\u4f17\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u4f4e\u6548\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u7ba1\u5236\u6700\u5c11\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u201d\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u5236\u5ea6\u66f4\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u3002\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2\u5728\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ee5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u6cd5\u5f8b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u6fc0\u53d1\u4e86\u5bf9\u7ba1\u5236\u7acb\u6cd5\u6548\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u662f\u201c\u7ba1\u5236\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u4e3a\u63d0\u51fa\u7ade\u4e89\u4e0e\u5784\u65ad\u4e24\u7ea7\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c06\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\u5f15\u5165\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u5be1\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u548c\u521a\u6027\u4ef7\u683c\u300b\u3001\u300a\u5be1\u5934\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5be1\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u6a21\u578b\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u6027\u548c\u9884\u671f\u5931\u7075\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5be1\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u4e0b\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u521a\u6027\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e94\u7528\u5361\u7279\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u3001\u4ea7\u54c1\u5dee\u522b\u5316\u3001\u6210\u672c\u5dee\u5f02\u4ee5\u53ca\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u8be6\u7ec6\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5408\u8c0b\u8fdb\u884c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9610\u8ff0\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5171\u8c0b\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5bdf\u89c9\u3001\u60e9\u7f5a\u80cc\u79bb\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u516c\u5f00\u9650\u4ea7\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<strong>\u4e09\u662f\u521b\u9020\u6027\u7684\u586b\u8865\u4e86\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7a7a\u767d\u3002<\/strong>\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u83b7\u5f97\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u76ca\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u65af\u8482\u683c\u52d2\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u6210\u672c\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u5728\u83b7\u53d6\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u671f\u3001\u5730\u57df\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u540c\u4e00\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u5e72\u6d89\u4e0e\u7ba1\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1983\u5e74\uff1a\u6770\u62c9\u5fb7\u00b7\u5fb7\u5e03\u9c81<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1983\u5e74\uff0c\u6770\u62c9\u5fb7\u00b7\u5fb7\u5e03\u9c81(Gerard Debreu)\u56e0\u5176\u628a\u65b0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u7eb3\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u4ee5\u53ca\u628a\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e88\u4ee5\u4e25\u5bc6\u7684\u91cd\u7ec4\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5fb7\u5e03\u9c81\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4ef7\u683c\u4f7f\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u540c\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u901a\u8fc7\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u5bf9\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5fb7\u5e03\u9c81\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8457\u4f5c\u4e3a1959\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4ef7\u683c\u7406\u8bba:\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5747\u8861\u7684\u539f\u7406\u5206\u6790\u300b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/strong>\u5fb7\u5e03\u9c81\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u5b58\u4e8e\u4e09\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe:\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u96c6\u5408\u90fd\u662f\u51f8\u96c6\uff1b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u62e5\u6709\u521d\u59cb\u8d44\u6e90\uff1b\u5e02\u573a\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u662f\u5916\u751f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u76f8\u4e92\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6700\u7ec8\u4ea4\u6613\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u90fd\u5c06\u6309\u5747\u8861\u4ef7\u683c\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d,\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7531\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u6839\u636e\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u52b3\u52a1\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u505a\u51fa\u72ec\u7acb\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1984\u5e74\uff1a\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u65af\u901a<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u65af\u901a(Richard Stone)\u7531\u4e8e\u5728\u56fd\u6c11\u8d26\u6237\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5c06\u56fd\u6c11\u6838\u7b97\u4f53\u7cfb\u516c\u5f0f\u5316\u800c\u8363\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u5e08\u4ece\u51ef\u6069\u65af\uff0c\u65af\u901a\u7ee7\u627f\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8c03\u63a7\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u5f00\u53d1\u3001\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e0e\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u65af\u901a\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5efa\u7acb\u6807\u51c6\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6838\u7b97\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c<\/strong>\u4ed6\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u5c06\u4f1a\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u590d\u5f0f\u8bb0\u8d26\u6cd5\u5f15\u5165\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6838\u7b97\uff0c\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e09\u5927\u51b3\u5b9a\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e0e\u5b8c\u5584\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1985\u5e74\uff1a\u5f17\u5170\u514b\u00b7\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1985\u5e74\u5f17\u5170\u514b\u00b7\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c(Franco Modigliani)\u56e0\u5176\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bbe\u7406\u8bba\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u8d44\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u6d88\u8d39\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e72\u9884\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u5176\u5173\u4e8e\u5229\u7387\u5bf9\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u5bf9IS-LM\u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u5c55\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u50a8\u84c4\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\uff0c<\/strong>\u50a8\u84c4\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u672c\u8d28\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\u5047\u8bf4\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u8bba\u8ff0\u5bb6\u5ead\u91d1\u878d\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5408\u7406\u6709\u6548\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u884c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bb6\u5ead\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u7684\u6548\u7528\u73b0\u503c\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u5c06\u4f9d\u636e\u5176\u73b0\u884c\u6536\u5165\u3001\u9884\u671f\u672a\u6765\u6536\u5165\u548c\u7ee7\u627f\u6536\u5165\u6309\u7167\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u7528\u9012\u51cf\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u5e73\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u6c34\u5e73\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u7387\u5e76\u6309\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5747\u5300\u5730\u6d88\u8d39\u603b\u6536\u5165\u3002\u5f53\u73b0\u884c\u6536\u5165\u8d85\u8fc7\u6216\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6309\u7a33\u5b9a\u6d88\u8d39\u7387\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u50a8\u84c4\u6216\u8d1f\u50a8\u84c4\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c-\u7c73\u52d2\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u5373MM\u5b9a\u7406\u3002<\/strong>\u8be5\u5b9a\u7406\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u8d44\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u6846\u67b6\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5b8c\u5907\u3001\u65e0\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u6027\u3001\u8d1f\u503a\u65e0\u98ce\u9669\u4ee5\u53ca\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002MM\u5b9a\u7406\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u7c7b\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u7a0e\u6536\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d1f\u503a\u4e0e\u5426\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u8d1f\u503a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u6743\u76ca\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\u7b49\u4e8e\u5904\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u98ce\u9669\u7b49\u7ea7\u7684\u65e0\u8d1f\u503a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u6743\u76ca\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e0e\u5176\u8d22\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u76f8\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u516c\u53f8\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u65e0\u8d1f\u503a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7b49\u4e8e\u516c\u53f8\u7a0e\u540e\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u9664\u4ee5\u516c\u53f8\u6743\u76ca\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c,\u8d1f\u503a\u7ecf\u8425\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7b49\u4e8e\u540c\u7c7b\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u65e0\u8d1f\u503a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u52a0\u4e0a\u51cf\u7a0e\u6536\u76ca\uff08\u7a0e\u7387\u4e58\u4ee5\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u516c\u53f8\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u540e\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u8d1f\u503a\u7ecf\u8425\u516c\u53f8\u4ef7\u503c\u5c06\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503a\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4e14\u8d1f\u503a\u516c\u53f8\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u8d1f\u503a\u8fbe\u5230100%\u65f6\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1986\u5e74\uff1a\u5c0f\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u5e03\u574e\u5357<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1986\u5e74\u5c0f\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u5e03\u574e\u5357(James Buchanan Jr.)\u56e0\u5176\u5bf9\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5951\u7ea6\u4e0e\u6cd5\u5236\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u201d\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u3002\u5e08\u4ece\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5bcc\u5170\u514b\u00b7\u5948\u7279\uff0c\u5e03\u574e\u5357\u6df1\u53d7\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8eab\u5904\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u9635\u8425\uff0c\u5e03\u574e\u5357\u575a\u6301\u653f\u5e9c\u5931\u7075\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u7075\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5c06\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u7b56\u5f15\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u5f53\u4e2d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5e03\u574e\u5357\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u4e3a\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>1962\u5e74\u5e03\u574e\u5357\u4e0e\u56fe\u6d1b\u514b\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u540c\u610f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u300b\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u57281975\u5e74\u300a\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u9650\u5236:\u5728\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u4e49\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u96c6\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4b\u95f4\u300b\u30011977\u5e74\u300a\u653f\u5e9c\u589e\u957f\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u300b\u3001\u300a\u5173\u4e8e\u5bfb\u79df\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e2d\u5bf9\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u9610\u8ff0\u548c\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e09\u5927\u5047\u5b9a\uff1a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4eba\u7406\u6027\u539f\u5219\u4e0e\u5229\u5df1\u4e3b\u4e49\u672c\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4ea4\u6362\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u4e09\u7c7b\u5047\u5b9a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u6307\u51fa\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u6d3b\u52a8\u540c\u6837\u5177\u6709\u4ea4\u6362\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b3\u7b56\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u89e3\u51b3\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6362\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b97\u65e8\u5728\u4e8e\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u884c\u4e3a\u7eb3\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u8bc1\u660e\u5728\u516c\u5171\u51b3\u7b56\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u4eba\u5185\u5728\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4eba\u8ffd\u6c42\u81ea\u8eab\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5c06\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u8ffd\u6c42\u4ea7\u751f\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4f4e\u6548\u3002\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u628a\u589e\u52a0\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u4e0e\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u6743\u5229\u968f\u610f\u4ea4\u7ed9\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u6743\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u7ea6\u675f\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u516c\u6c11\u771f\u6b63\u5730\u800c\u975e\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5730\u638c\u63e1\u8be5\u7ea6\u675f\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u51b3\u7b56\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1987\u5e74\uff1a\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u7d22\u6d1b<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u7d22\u6d1b(Robert Solow)\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u798f\u5229\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u7d22\u6d1b\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u6307\u51fa\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u662f\u5f71\u54cd\u957f\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u653f\u5e9c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6548\u5e72\u9884\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5f15\u5bfc\u5e02\u573a\u6280\u672f\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7d22\u6d1b\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e24\u9879\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u7d22\u6d1b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong>1956\u5e74\u300a\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d22\u6d1b\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u54c8\u7f57\u5fb7-\u591a\u9a6c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d44\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u538b\u5012\u6027\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u7d22\u6d1b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u653e\u677e\u4e86\u54c8\u7f57\u5fb7-\u591a\u9a6c\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5bf9\u8d44\u672c-\u4ea7\u51fa\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u5165\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5c06\u8d44\u672c\u8fb9\u9645\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u51cf\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u7ade\u4e89\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5916\u751f\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u53ca\u5176\u6536\u76ca\u4e0d\u53d8\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u7d22\u6d1b\u6a21\u578b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u5916\u751f\u7684\u6280\u672f\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u6bd4\u7387\u589e\u957f\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u5728\u5e73\u8861\u589e\u957f\u8def\u5f84\u4e0a\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u5916\u751f\u6280\u672f\u6c34\u5e73\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u53d8\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u8d8b\u4e8e\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4ec5\u80fd\u8865\u507f\u56fa\u5b9a\u8d44\u4ea7\u6298\u65e7\u548c\u88c5\u5907\u65b0\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4f59\u503c\u6cd5(remainder method)\u53ca\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u7d22\u6d1b1957\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u603b\u751f\u4ea7\u51fd\u6570\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u5047\u8bbe\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u662f\u201c\u5e0c\u514b\u65af\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\u201d,\u5373\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e00\u52b3\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u66ff\u4ee3\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u751f\u4ea7\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u504f\u5fae\u5206\u63a8\u5bfc\uff0c\u5c06\u4eba\u5747\u4ea7\u51fa\u589e\u957f\u7387(\u6216\u52b3\u52a8\u751f\u4ea7\u7387)\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u901f\u5ea6\u52a0\u4e0a\u4eba\u5747\u8d44\u672c\u62e5\u6709\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u4e58\u4ee5\u8d44\u672c\u6536\u5165\u5728\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u4e2d\u6240\u5360\u4efd\u989d\u3002\u7d22\u6d1b\u5229\u7528\u4f59\u503c\u6cd5\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd40\u5e74\u95f4\u6709\u5173\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc1\u660e\u8981\u60f3\u52a0\u901f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u52b3\u52a8\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u901f\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u800c\u4e0d\u5e94\u4e00\u5473\u8ffd\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u6295\u5165\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1988\u5e74\uff1a\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u83b1\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u83b1\u65af(Maurice Allais)\u56e0\u5176\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7406\u8bba\u53ca\u8d44\u6e90\u6709\u6548\u5229\u7528\u65b9\u9762\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u6cd5\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u3002\u963f\u83b1\u65af\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5b9e\u73b0\u6548\u7387\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u6781\u529b\u53cd\u5bf9\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u963f\u83b1\u65af\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>1943\u5e74\u963f\u83b1\u65af\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bfb\u627e\u4e00\u95e8\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u79d1\u300b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6700\u4f18\u7406\u8bba\u505a\u4e86\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u3002\u963f\u83b1\u65af\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u201c\u5355\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6279\u5224\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u591a\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u5bfc\u5411\u5747\u8861\u7684\u4ea4\u6362\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u70b9\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8fde\u7eed\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7ecf\u8425\u8005\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u53ef\u5206\u914d\u5269\u4f59\u201d\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u90fd\u8d8b\u8fd1\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u5269\u4f59\u4ef7\u503c\u53ef\u5206\u914d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b,\u624d\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u822c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5747\u8861\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u963f\u83b1\u6096\u8bba\u201d\u3001\u201c\u53ef\u5206\u914d\u5269\u4f59\u201d\u3001\u201c\u5fc3\u7406\u6027\u65f6\u95f4\u201d\u7b49\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5e76\u8fd0\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1989\u5e74\uff1a\u7279\u91cc\u592b\u00b7\u54c8\u7ef4\u9ed8<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1989\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u632a\u5a01\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7279\u91cc\u592b\u00b7\u54c8\u7ef4\u9ed8\uff08Trygve Haavelmo\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fd0\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u8054\u7acb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u9996\u6b21\u9881\u7ed9\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u54c8\u7ef4\u9ed8\u662f\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\u672c\u79d1\u751f\u7684\u5fc5\u4fee\u8bfe\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u54c8\u7ef4\u9ed8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u89c6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u968f\u673a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5176\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u56e0\u7d20\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u5bf9\u8054\u7acb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u7531\u82e5\u5e72\u53d8\u91cf\u540c\u65f6\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u54c8\u7ef4\u9ed8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u548c\u7b80\u5316\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u524d\u8005\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5219\u662f\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u5185\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5916\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5176\u6c42\u89e3\u65f6\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u7a0b\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u5173\u7cfb\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1990\u5e74\uff1a\u54c8\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u3001\u9ed8\u987f\u00b7\u7c73\u52d2\u548c\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u590f\u666e<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1990\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u4e09\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff1a\u54c8\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\uff08Harry Markowitz\uff09\u3001\u9ed8\u987f\u00b7\u7c73\u52d2\uff08Merton Miller\uff09\u548c\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u590f\u666e\uff08William Sharpe\uff09\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u7406\u8bba\uff08\u5747\u503c\u65b9\u5dee\u6a21\u578b\uff09\uff0c\u590f\u666e\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7406\u8bba\uff08CAPM\uff09\u3002\u7c73\u52d2\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff08MM\u5b9a\u7406\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u8fd9\u4e09\u4eba\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u65f6\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\u4ecd\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8bfe\u5802\u7684\u5fc5\u4fee\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e5f\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u54c8\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u83281927\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\uff0c1950\u5e74\u548c1954\u5e74\u5206\u83b7\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u548c\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u535a\u58eb\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u754c\u5177\u6709\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u8d44\u4ea7\u9009\u62e9\uff1a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u662f\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u5747\u503c\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u8bc1\u5238\u7ec4\u5408\u7406\u8bba\uff08\u5747\u503c-\u65b9\u5dee\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u8bba\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u4f46\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4ec5\u4ec5\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u5e94\u5f53\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u94b1\u90fd\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u4e00\u53ea\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u6700\u9ad8\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u7b26\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5173\u6ce8\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5173\u6ce8\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u636e\u6b64\uff0c\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u5747\u503c-\u65b9\u5dee\u201d\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u8bc1\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u670d\u4ece\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5747\u503c\u3001\u65b9\u5dee\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u7279\u5f81\u6765\u5b9a\u91cf\u63cf\u8ff0\u5355\u4e00\u8bc1\u5238\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4ed6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8003\u5bdf\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5747\u503c\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u3002\u53d1\u73b0\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5747\u503c\u662f\u6210\u5206\u8bc1\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5747\u503c\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u52a0\u6743\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u5374\u5c0f\u4e8e\u6210\u5206\u8bc1\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u52a0\u6743\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6563\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u539f\u7406\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u8bc1\u5238\u7ec4\u5408\u6709\u6548\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u98ce\u9669\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u8bc1\u5238\u7ec4\u5408\u30021952\u5e74\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u9996\u6b21\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u540e\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u5bf9\u5176\u5b8c\u5584\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f71\u54cd\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7406\u8bba\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u9ed8\u987f\u00b7\u7c73\u52d2<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u7c73\u52d21923\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u3002\u7c73\u52d2\u672c\u79d1\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u5728\u4e8c\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u66fe\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u90e8\u95e8\u4ece\u4e8b\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u30021952\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u7ea6\u7ff0\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f26\u6566\u653f\u7ecf\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u8bb2\u5e08\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7c73\u52d2\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u679c\u662f\u548c\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u4e9a\u5c3c\u4e00\u8d77\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u4e9a\u5c3c-\u7c73\u52d2\u5b9a\u7406\uff08MM\u5b9a\u7406\uff09\u3002<\/strong>MM\u5b9a\u7406\u5047\u8bbe\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u65b9\u4fbf\u7684\u83b7\u5f97\u6240\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u4e14\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6709\u7740\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u6760\u6746\u7ed3\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5b83\u5305\u542b\u4e24\u4e2a\u547d\u9898\uff0cMM\u5b9a\u7406\u4e00\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u52a1\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u589e\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\u3002MM\u5b9a\u7406\u4e8c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u8003\u8651\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\u53d7\u5230\u516c\u53f8\u6760\u6746\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u5229\u606f\u53ef\u4ee5\u62b5\u6263\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u516c\u53f8\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5373\u8d1f\u503a\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u7ecf\u8425\u6709\u7a0e\u6536\u8282\u7ea6\u6548\u5e94\u3002MM\u5b9a\u7406\u81ea\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u91d1\u878d\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\u672c\u79d1\u751f\u7684\u5fc5\u4fee\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u8d28\u7591MM\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u8fc7\u5f3a\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u96be\u4ee5\u6ee1\u8db3\uff0c\u4f46\u65f6\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff0cMM\u5b9a\u7406\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5206\u6790\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u52a1\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u590f\u666e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5a01\u5ec9\u590f\u666e1934\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\uff0c1951\u5e74\u9ad8\u4e2d\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\u8003\u5165\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\uff0c\u51c6\u5907\u653b\u8bfb\u533b\u5b66\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u8f6c\u5b66\u81f3\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u5206\u6821\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e8e1955\u5e74\u548c1956\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5b66\u58eb\u548c\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u7855\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5e76\u7ee7\u7eed\u653b\u8bfb\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5f15\u64ce\u516c\u53f8\uff08Financial Engines Inc.\uff09\u7684\u540d\u8a89\u4e3b\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u590f\u666e\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\uff08CAPM\uff09\u3002<\/strong>\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5219\u663e\u5f97\u8fc7\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u3002\u8981\u4ece\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u76841500\u53ea\u8bc1\u5238\u4e2d\u6311\u9009\u51fa\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6280\u672f\u800c\u8a00\u6210\u672c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4ee5\u590f\u666e\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\u7b80\u5316\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u6240\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90fd\u91c7\u7528\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u5747\u8861\u4ef7\u683c\uff1f1964\u5e74\u590f\u666e\u5728The Journal of Finance\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u8d44\u672c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff1a\u98ce\u9669\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u6807\u5fd7\u7740CAPM\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u3002\u5728\u6240\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90fd\u91c7\u7528\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e14\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u6469\u64e6\u53ca\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6c34\u5e73\u03b2\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u5927\u5927\u7b80\u5316\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u5747\u8861\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u5747\u503c\u65b9\u5dee\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u9002\u7528\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8861\u91cf\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca-\u98ce\u9669\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u7528\u7684\u6307\u6807\u201c\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\uff08Sharpe Ratio\uff09\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u9884\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1991\u5e74\uff1a\u7f57\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u79d1\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1991\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u79d1\u65af\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u548c\u4ea7\u6743\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u79d1\u65af\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u662f\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u9f3b\u7956\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/strong>\u79d1\u65af\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6df1\u523b\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u539f\u521b\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u76f4\u63a5\u8bde\u751f\u4e86\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u601d\u60f3\u7814\u7a76\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u5f62\u6210\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u4ea7\u6743\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u59d4\u6258-\u4ee3\u7406\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u7b49\u51e0\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5206\u652f\u3002\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u8bfa\u65af\uff081993\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\uff09\u3001\u54c8\u7f57\u5fb7\u00b7\u5fb7\u59c6\u585e\u8328\u3001\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee\u3001\u6ce2\u65af\u7eb3\u3001\u5f20\u4e94\u5e38\u7b49\u90fd\u662f\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u79d1\u65af\u5173\u4e8e\u4ea7\u6743\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u9886\u57df\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u79d1\u65af\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u96c6\u4e2d\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4e24\u7bc7\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u300a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u300b\u548c\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u300b\u30021937\u5e74\uff0c\u79d1\u65af\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u300b\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u8fb9\u754c\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/strong>\u79d1\u65af\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u201c\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\uff08transaction 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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1992\u5e74\uff1a\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u8d1d\u514b\u5c14<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1992\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u8d1d\u514b\u5c14\uff08Gary Becker\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5c06\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u66f4\u4e3a\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u975e\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u3002\u8d1d\u514b\u5c14\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7b49\u5b66\u79d1\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8d1d\u514b\u5c14\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5305\u62ec\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u5bf9\u6b67\u89c6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\uff0c<\/strong>\u8d1d\u514b\u5c14\u5728\u4ed61955\u5e74\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6b67\u89c6\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u65b9\u9762\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u6b67\u89c6\u8005\u548c\u88ab\u6b67\u89c6\u8005\u90fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u96c7\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e3a\u6027\u522b\u3001\u79cd\u65cf\u7b49\u539f\u56e0\u6b67\u89c6\u96c7\u5458\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u96c7\u5458\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u96c7\u4e3b\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7f29\u5c0f\u4ed6\u53ef\u96c7\u4f63\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u5458\u5de5\u6574\u4f53\u7d20\u8d28\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ed6\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ffd\u6c42\u5229\u6da6\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u5bf9\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\uff0c<\/strong>\u8d1d\u514b\u5c14\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u72ec\u8f9f\u8e4a\u5f84\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u9053\u5fb7\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u72af\u7f6a\u5206\u5b50\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5927\u4e8e\u5176\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u88ab\u902e\u6355\u3001\u5b9a\u7f6a\u7b49\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u72af\u7f6a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u589e\u52a0\u8b66\u529b\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5305\u62ec\u589e\u52a0\u5904\u7f5a\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u3002<strong>\u4e09\u662f\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c<\/strong>\u8d1d\u514b\u5c14\u5bf9\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u521b\u65b0\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u589e\u957f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e26\u6765\u6280\u672f\u548c\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1993\u5e74\uff1a\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u548c\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u8bfa\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1993\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u798f\u683c\u5c14\uff08Robert Fogel\uff09\u548c\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u8bfa\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u521b\u65b0\u6027\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u91cf\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u3002\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8ba1\u91cf\u53f2\u5b66\u548c\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u548c\u4e3b\u8981\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4f5c\u201c\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u201d\u3001\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u7684\u96c6\u5927\u6210\u8005\u201d\u3002\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u4e00\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6295\u8eab\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5386\u53f2\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8bfa\u65af\u662f\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ed6\u548c\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u90fd\u662f\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5148\u884c\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6269\u5c55\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b0\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u601d\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u798f\u683c\u5c14<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u798f\u683c\u5c141926\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff0c1948\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u5eb7\u5948\u5c14\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1960\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1963\u5e74\u5728\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1981\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u4efb\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u957f\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u957f\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd19\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u8fd0\u8f93\u9769\u547d\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong>\u4f20\u7edf\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u4ea4\u901a\u8fd0\u8f93\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7f16\u64b0\u6cd5\uff1a\u4ed6\u7528\u5b9e\u9645\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u548c\u4e00\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4fee\u94c1\u8def\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u94c1\u8def\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5e76\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u5fc5\u987b\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u52303%\u3002\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u8fd0\u7528\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bba\u8bc1\u548c\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u8005\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u5bf9\u5357\u5317\u6218\u4e89\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong>\u901a\u5e38\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4f4e\u6548\u7387\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u53ca\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u79d1\u5e03\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u751f\u4ea7\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u590d\u539f\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u4ee5\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u5bdf\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5265\u524a\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u6548\u7387\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e14\u83b7\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u5927\u3002\u5974\u96b6\u4e3b\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6c89\u6eba\u4e8e\u79cd\u690d\u56ed\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u6cbb\u6597\u4e89\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u7406\u6027\u4e14\u8ffd\u9010\u5229\u6da6\u7684\u3002\u4e09\u662f\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u4eba\u53e3\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u798f\u683c\u5c14\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u6781\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u4eba\u53e3\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u8425\u517b\u548c\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u884c\u4e3a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u8bfa\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8bfa\u65af1920\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9a6c\u8428\u8bf8\u585e\u5dde\uff0c\u672c\u79d1\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u3002\u4e8c\u6218\u65f6\u66fe\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u670d\u5f79\uff0c1952\u5e74\u5728\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u8d74\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8bfa\u65af\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u4f7f\u7528\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5185\u6db5\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7406\u8bba\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u5305\u62ec\u4ea7\u6743\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7406\u8bba\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\uff081\uff09\u4ea7\u6743\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ea7\u6743\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6709\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u4ea7\u6743\u80fd\u591f\u589e\u5f3a\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5f62\u6210\u826f\u597d\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4eba\u7c7b\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6709\u6548\u7684\u4ea7\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\uff082\uff09\u56fd\u5bb6\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5177\u6709\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u754c\u5b9a\u4ea7\u6743\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u964d\u4f4e\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u4ece\u800c\u6700\u5927\u5316\u793e\u4f1a\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8bfa\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u4f1a\u4ece\u81ea\u8eab\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u754c\u5b9a\u4e00\u5957\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u800c\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u7684\u4ea7\u6743\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\uff083\uff09\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u4e00\u76f4\u6392\u65a5\u6216\u62d2\u7edd\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u800c\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u662f\u964d\u4f4e\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u754c\u5b9a\u548c\u6267\u884c\u4ea7\u6743\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5927\u8fc7\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u901a\u8fc7\u5916\u90e8\u529b\u91cf\u754c\u5b9a\u4ea7\u6743\u5c31\u662f\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u6765\u89c4\u8303\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6cd5\u89c4\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u9053\u5fb7\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c11\u65cf\u5386\u53f2\u7b49\u6784\u6210\u7684\u89c4\u8303\u4eba\u4eec\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6709\u529b\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ea7\u6743\u6267\u884c\u7684\u6548\u7387\u5f97\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1994\u5e74\uff1a\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u3001\u5c0f\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7eb3\u4ec0\u548c\u83b1\u8335\u54c8\u5fb7\u00b7\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1994\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\uff08John Harsanyi\uff09\u3001\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7eb3\u4ec0\uff08John Nash Jr.\uff09\u548c\u83b1\u8335\u54c8\u5fb7\u00b7\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\uff08Reinhard Selten\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u975e\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u5747\u8861\u6240\u505a\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u662f\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u5c06\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0e\u504f\u597d\u7eb3\u5165\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6781\u5927\u5730\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec0\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u5b66\u79d1\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6770\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u5728\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\u5904\u4e8e\u6838\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u4f1a\u8ba1\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u5b66\u751a\u81f3\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u6982\u5ff5\u5747\u8d77\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u662f\u535a\u5f08\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u8005\uff0c\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3a\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u53ca\u5176\u5e94\u7528\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u3002\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5b50\u535a\u5f08\u7cbe\u70bc\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u8bbe\u5b9a\u9650\u5236\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c1920\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5e03\u8fbe\u4f69\u65af\uff0c1944\u5e74\u5728\u5e03\u8fbe\u4f69\u65af\u83b7\u5f97\u836f\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1946\u5e74\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u5728\u5e03\u8fbe\u4f69\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u653b\u8bfb\u54f2\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u517c\u4fee\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u30021950\u5e74\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u8d74\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u6089\u5c3c\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e1953\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u6089\u5c3c\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u30021956\u5e74\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u5728\u6d1b\u514b\u83f2\u52d2\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\u8fdb\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\uff0c1958\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u662f\u628a\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\u8fdb\u884c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u521b\u65b0\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u51fa\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/strong>\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u300a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\u300b\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5c06\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\u8f6c\u6362\u6210\u5b8c\u5168\u4f46\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u7c7b\u578b\u90fd\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u77e5\u9053\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5206\u5e03\u6982\u7387\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u516c\u5171\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u5c31\u628a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5c06\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u5b8c\u5168\u4f46\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4fe1\u606f\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u6362\u65b9\u6cd5\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u8f6c\u6362\u3002\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u8f6c\u6362\u662f\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\uff0c\u6781\u5927\u5730\u62d3\u5c55\u4e86\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u5728\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u8f6c\u6362\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\uff08\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u9759\u6001\u535a\u5f08\u5747\u8861\uff09\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u548c\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80fd\u4f7f\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6548\u7528\u8fbe\u5230\u6700\u5927\u5316\u5747\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5c0f\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7eb3\u4ec0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u7eb3\u4ec01928\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5f17\u5409\u5c3c\u4e9a\u7684\u5e03\u9c81\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\uff0c1945\u5e74\u8fdb\u5165\u5361\u8010\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u8bfb\u5316\u5b66\u5de5\u7a0b\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u8001\u5e08\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5929\u5206\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u4ed6\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u7eb3\u4ec0\u6b63\u5f0f\u8f6c\u5165\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u30021950\u5e74\u7eb3\u4ec0\u83b7\u5f97\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1951\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u62c5\u4efb\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u52a9\u6559\uff0c\u540e\u4efb\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u751f\u6d3b\u7ecf\u5386\u88ab\u62cd\u6210\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u5965\u65af\u5361\u83b7\u5956\u5f71\u7247\u300a\u7f8e\u4e3d\u5fc3\u7075\u300b\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec02015\u5e74\u56e0\u8f66\u7978\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u4eab\u5e7486\u5c81\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7eb3\u4ec0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u975e\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u533a\u5206\u3002<\/strong>\u7eb3\u4ec0\u6700\u5148\u5bf9\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u4e0e\u975e\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5305\u542b\u7740\u67d0\u79cd\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5408\u4f5c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684N\u4eba\u535a\u5f08\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u5b83\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u80fd\u7531\u5c40\u4e2d\u4eba\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5408\u4f5c\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7eb3\u4ec0\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u5b9a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u6c9f\u901a\uff0c\u8be5\u601d\u60f3\u62d3\u5c55\u4e86\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6027\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u3002<\/strong>\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5bf9\u975e\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u5305\u542b\u4efb\u610f\u4e2a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u548c\u4efb\u610f\u504f\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u7528\u89e3\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u76f8\u5173\u9886\u57df\u6709\u7740\u975e\u5e38\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6269\u5c55\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u6781\u5f3a\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7279\u5f81\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bf9\u4e8e\u535a\u5f08\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u65b9\u5f0f\u3001\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u52a0\u89c4\u8303\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u540c\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e0e\u7eb3\u4ec0\u540c\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u7684\u6d77\u8428\u5c3c\u548c\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u90fd\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u7684\u5b8c\u5584\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u83b1\u8335\u54c8\u5fb7\u00b7\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e1930\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5e03\u96f7\u65af\u52b3\uff08\u73b0\u5c5e\u6ce2\u5170\uff09\uff0c1951\u5e74\u8fdb\u5165\u6cd5\u5170\u514b\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u4e60\u6570\u5b66\u30021957\u5e74\u5728\u83b7\u5f97\u6cd5\u5170\u514b\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\uff0c\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u88ab\u8be5\u6821\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6d77\u56e0\u8328\u00b7\u8428\u5c14\u66fc\u8058\u4e3a\u52a9\u624b\uff0c\u5728\u8428\u5c14\u66fc\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u5f00\u59cb\u4ece\u4e8b\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u53ca\u5176\u5e94\u7528\u548c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e1961\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u6cd5\u5170\u514b\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5b50\u535a\u5f08\u7cbe\u70bc\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/strong>\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u7684\u9644\u52a0\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u5b50\u535a\u5f08\u7cbe\u70bc\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u201d\u548c\u201c\u98a4\u6296\u624b\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5747\u8861\u70b9\u201d\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b0\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u53d1\u73b0\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u70b9\u90fd\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u67d0\u4e9b\u5747\u8861\u70b9\u8981\u6c42\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5b9e\u65bd\u201c\u7a7a\u6d1e\u5a01\u80c1\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f9d\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u7b56\u7565\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5747\u8861\u89e3\u4e5f\u662f\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u63d0\u51fa\u5b50\u535a\u5f08\u7cbe\u70bc\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u4e0d\u76f4\u89c2\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u70b9\u3002\u4f46\u5b50\u535a\u5f08\u5747\u8861\u70b9\u96c6\u5408\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6269\u5c55\u578b\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u6392\u9664\u6240\u6709\u4e0d\u76f4\u89c2\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6cfd\u5c14\u817e\u53c8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u98a4\u6296\u624b\u5b8c\u7f8e\u70b9\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u5305\u542b\u975e\u7406\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff08\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f1a\u72af\u9519\u8bef\uff09\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u7406\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1995\u5e74\uff1a\u5c0f\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5362\u5361\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1995\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u5c0f\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5362\u5361\u65af\uff08Robert Lucas Jr.\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u4e86\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5047\u8bf4,\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u5362\u5361\u65af\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\u548c\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5047\u8bbe\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u66fc\u6606\u5c06\u4ed6\u8bc4\u4e3a20\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e25\u5e74\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u5362\u5361\u65af\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6784\u9020\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5353\u8d8a\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5362\u5361\u65af\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u4eba\u7269\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u6d3e\uff1a<\/strong>20\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u548c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5e76\u5b58\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u6b64\u675f\u624b\u65e0\u7b56\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u6ede\u80c0\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ee4\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u5362\u5361\u65af\u628a\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u7ed3\u5408\u5230\u8d27\u5e01\u4e3b\u4e49\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u8428\u91d1\u7279\u3001\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5df4\u7f57\u7b49\u4eba\u5bf9\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u4f5c\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\u9610\u660e\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u628a\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5f15\u5165\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4ee5\u5362\u5361\u65af\u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u6d3e\uff0c\u6216\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5b66\u6d3e\u201d\u3002\u5362\u5361\u65af\u7684\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b3\u7b56\u4e4b\u524d\u90fd\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u6536\u96c6\u548c\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u5207\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u5f00\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6307\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u5c06\u6765\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u7684\u503c\u6240\u4f5c\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u4f7f\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f30\u8ba1\u6210\u4e3a\u9884\u671f\u5fc5\u987b\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e09\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f\u8be5\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u5207\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6c42\u51fa\u67d0\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u671f\u671b\uff1b\u4e09\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u5207\u4e0e\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u6709\u5173\u7684\u548c\u6709\u7528\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u5185\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5362\u5361\u65af\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u5bf9\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u65af\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u6539\u9020\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u5b58\u5728\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5df2\u88ab\u9884\u671f\u5230\u7684\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u53d8\u52a8\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u671f\u5230\u7684\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u624d\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u65af\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u901a\u80c0\u504f\u79bb\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u504f\u79bb\u81ea\u7136\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5362\u5361\u65af\u6279\u5224\uff1a<\/strong>\u5362\u5361\u65af\u7684\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u9488\u5bf9\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5362\u5361\u65af\u6279\u5224\u201d\u3002\u5362\u5361\u65af\u6279\u5224\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f01\u56fe\u628a\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f53\u4f5c\u4e00\u67b6\u673a\u5668\u6765\u8c03\u8282\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b8f\u89c2\u653f\u7b56\u603b\u662f\u65e0\u6548\u7684\u3002\u5362\u5361\u65af\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1996\u5e74\uff1a\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u548c\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1996\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\uff08James Mirrlees\uff09\u548c\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc\uff08William Vickrey\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0b\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u7406\u8bba\u6240\u505a\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u5f00\u62d3\u4e86\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c<\/strong>\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u9886\u57df\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4ed6\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u52a8\u5730\u603b\u7ed3\u4e3a\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0e\u6fc0\u52b1\u2014\u2014\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u80e1\u841d\u535c\u548c\u5927\u68d2\u201d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002<strong>\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc\u5c5e\u4e8e\u540e\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\uff0c<\/strong>\u662f\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u4e1a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u5148\u9a71\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6700\u4f18\u7a0e\u5236\u7ed3\u6784\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u62cd\u5356\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4ed6\u91cd\u8981\u800c\u5bcc\u6709\u521b\u9020\u6027\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u516c\u5171\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u83ab\u91cc\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u83ab\u91cc\u65af1936\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u82cf\u683c\u5170\uff0c1963\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1963\u5e74\u81f31968\u5e74\u5728\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\uff0c\u5e76\u62c5\u4efb\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u4e09\u4e00\u5b66\u9662\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u30021969\u5e74\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u88ab\u6b63\u5f0f\u8058\u4e3a\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c1995\u5e74\u8f6c\u56de\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u5728\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b3\u7b56\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u3001\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u83b7\u5f97\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e00\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u7684\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4f1a\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u626d\u66f2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u5747\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u7ed3\u6784\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u5f81\u7a0e\u9700\u8981\u4fdd\u8bc1\u516c\u5e73\u548c\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u653f\u5e9c\u80fd\u591f\u51c6\u786e\u3001\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u5224\u65ad\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u9ad8\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u80fd\u529b\u9ad8\u4f4e\u800c\u5f81\u6536\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4fdd\u8bc1\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u516c\u5e73\u53ca\u6ee1\u8db3\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u6240\u9700\u6536\u5165\u3002<strong>\u4e09\u662f\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u5b9e\u73b0\u6fc0\u52b1\u76f8\u5bb9\u662f\u53ef\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u662f\u81ea\u5229\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u8981\u8bbe\u8ba1\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u6709\u6548\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u52a0\u4ee5\u5f15\u5bfc\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6700\u4f18\u914d\u7f6e\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u793e\u4f1a\u76ee\u6807\u3002<strong>\u56db\u662f\u4fe1\u53f7\u7b5b\u9009\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u63a5\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u80fd\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u88ab\u533a\u5206\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5e94\u8be5\u628a\u5de5\u8d44\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u6c34\u5e73\u6302\u94a9\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc1914\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5927\u4e0d\u5217\u98a0\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u7ef4\u591a\u5229\u4e9a\u5e02\uff0c1935\u5e74\u5728\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1937\u5e74\u5728\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ed6\u4f9b\u804c\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d44\u6e90\u8ba1\u5212\u7f72\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7a0e\u6536\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\uff0c1948\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6700\u4f18\u7a0e\u5236\u7ed3\u6784\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u62cd\u5356\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5728\u6700\u4f18\u7a0e\u5236\u7ed3\u6784\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c<\/strong>\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d4b\u7a0e\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6fc0\u52b1\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u6548\u7528\u5bf9\u5b9e\u73b0\u6700\u4f18\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u6b64\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u516c\u5e73\u4e0e\u6fc0\u52b1\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u5f53\u4e2a\u4eba\u4ea7\u91cf\u662f\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b27\u62c9\u65b9\u7a0b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8ba1\u7b97\u6700\u4f18\u7a0e\u6536\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<strong>\u5728\u62cd\u5356\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c<\/strong>\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc\u628a\u6295\u6807\u4e0e\u7ade\u4ef7\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5206\u4e3a4\u7c7b\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5356\u65b9\u5982\u679c\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u51e0\u79cd\u62cd\u5356\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u6536\u5165\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6536\u5165\u76f8\u7b49\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5356\u65b9\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u6700\u65b9\u4fbf\u4e70\u65b9\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u7ef4\u514b\u91cc\u6295\u6807\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1997\u5e74\uff1a\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u9ed8\u987f\u548c\u8fc8\u4f26\u00b7\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1997\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u9ed8\u987f\uff08Robert Merton\uff09\u548c\u8fc8\u4f26\u00b7\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\uff08Myron Scholes\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/strong>\u9ed8\u987f\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5927\u5e08\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u671f\u6743\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u79ef\u6781\u53c2\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f1a\u8ba1\u51c6\u5219\u5b8c\u5584\u548c\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u90fd\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u5728\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u65b9\u9762\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4ed6\u957f\u671f\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u91d1\u878d\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0e\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u5171\u540c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u7684\u5fc5\u4fee\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u516c\u5f0f\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u800c\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7f57<\/strong><strong>\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u9ed8\u987f<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u9ed8\u987f1944\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff0c1966\u5e74\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u5de5\u7a0b\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u5e76\u83b7\u5de5\u7a0b\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\u9ed8\u987f\u53bb\u4e86\u52a0\u5dde\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u653b\u8bfb\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u63a5\u89e6\u6570\u7406\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u840c\u751f\u4e86\u8981\u628a\u6570\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u30021970\u5e74\u9ed8\u987f\u8fdb\u5165\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u6570\u7406\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u8457\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u7684\u52a9\u624b\uff0c\u4e24\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u5408\u4f5c\u7814\u7a76\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3001\u8ba4\u80a1\u8bc1\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u30021988\u5e74\u9ed8\u987f\u8d74\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u62c5\u4efb\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u957f\u671f\u6267\u6559\u4e8e\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9ed8\u987f\u5bf9\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u505a\u4e86\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u62d3\u5c55\uff0c<\/strong>\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u7406\u6027\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4f5c\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u539f\u7528\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u6269\u6563\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e3a\u51fa\u53d1\u70b9\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80a1\u4ef7\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u3002\u800c\u9ed8\u987f\u4ee5\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e3a\u51fa\u53d1\u70b9\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u662f\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u8df3\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u800c\u4e0d\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u66f4\u52a0\u7b26\u5408\u5b9e\u9645\u3002\u9ed8\u987f\u653e\u5bbd\u4e86\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u884d\u751f\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ee5\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u503a\u5238\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u6807\u7684\u7269\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u52a8\u800c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u884d\u751f\u91d1\u878d\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u5408\u7406\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002<strong>\u9ed8\u987f\u8fd8\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u529f\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5206\u6790\uff0c<\/strong>\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u529f\u80fd\u662f\uff1a\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u914d\u7f6e\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9ed8\u987f\u5c06\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u5206\u4e3a\u516d\u79cd\uff1a\u6e05\u7b97\u548c\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed3\u7b97\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3001\u805a\u96c6\u548c\u5206\u914d\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3001\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e4b\u95f4\u8f6c\u79fb\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3001\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3001\u89e3\u51b3\u6fc0\u52b1\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u8fc8\u4f26\u00b7\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af1941\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5b89\u5927\u7565\u7701\u7684\u8482\u660e\u65af\u57ce\uff0c1969\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u548c\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\uff0c<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u8f9f\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u65b0\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u548c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u30021973\u5e74\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\uff0c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4e5f\u540c\u65f6\u5f00\u5f20\u5e76\u91c7\u7528\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5feb\u800c\u4e14\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u671f\u6743\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5f88\u5feb\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5404\u5927\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u201c\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u201d\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6570\u7406\u91d1\u878d\u8fd9\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\u5728\u4eca\u540e\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1998\u5e74\uff1a\u963f\u739b\u8482\u4e9a\u00b7\u68ee<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1998\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u5370\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u963f\u739b\u8482\u4e9a\u00b7\u68ee\uff08Amartya Sen\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5bf9\u798f\u5229\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u68ee\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u201c\u591a\u5143\u6587\u5316\u517c\u5bb9\u7cbe\u795e\u201d\u7684\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\u3001\u201c\u5370\u5ea6\u6559\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u5206\u5b50\u201d\u7684\u62a8\u51fb\u8005\u3001\u201c\u4e09\u4f4d\u4e00\u4f53\u201d\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u63a8\u5d07\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u4eba\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u516c\u6c11\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0d\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u51fa\u7c7b\u62d4\u8403\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5177\u6709\u771f\u77e5\u707c\u89c1\u7684\u4eba\u6587\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u601d\u60f3\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u68ee\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5176\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4e09\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u4fee\u6b63\u4e86\u201c\u7406\u6027\u201d\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u201d\uff0c<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fee\u6b63\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u68ee\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u7406\u6027\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u548c\u8bc4\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u548c\u5468\u56f4\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u7504\u522b\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u9009\u62e9\u5dee\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u5373\u53ef\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u6761\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u5165\u201c\u4e2a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u201d\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u9664\u4e86\u8981\u8003\u8651\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u79c1\u4eba\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4e2a\u4eba\u5229\u5f97\u7b49\u3002<strong>\u4e09\u662f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u591a\u6570\u7968\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u603b\u662f\u80fd\u8fbe\u6210\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c<\/strong>\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u201c\u6295\u7968\u6096\u8bba\u201d\u548c\u201c\u963f\u7f57\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u7406\u201d\u3002\u68ee\u6307\u51fa\u80fd\u5426\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u51b3\u7b56\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53ef\u6bd4\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u80fd\u5426\u6bd4\u8f83\u5404\u79cd\u793e\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u6548\u7528\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u589e\u52a0\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bfb\u6c42\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u798f\u5229\u51fd\u6570\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>1999\u5e74\uff1a\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>1999\u5e74\uff0c\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14\uff08Robert A. Mundell\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u4f53\u5236\u4e0b\u8d27\u5e01\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u9002\u5b9c\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u901a\u533a\u57df\u5206\u6790\u6240\u505a\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6b27\u5143\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8499\u4ee3\u5c141932\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5b89\u5927\u7565\u7701\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u5217\u98a0\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u8bfb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\uff0c1956\u5e74\u83b7\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5b8f\u89c2\u7a33\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6700\u4f18\u8d27\u5e01\u533a\u57df\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5f17\u83b1\u660e\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u5f00\u653e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u7684IS-LM\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5f00\u653e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u3001\u6c47\u7387\u7b49\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u642d\u914d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5185\u90e8\u5747\u8861\u76ee\u6807\u4e0e\u5916\u90e8\u5747\u8861\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\u662f\uff1a\u8d44\u672c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u65e0\u6548\uff1b\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u6d6e\u52a8\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff1b\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u5728\u6d6e\u52a8\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u65e0\u6548\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u6700\u4f18\u8d27\u5e01\u533a\u57df\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u5730\u533a\u653e\u5f03\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u4e3b\u6743\u800c\u8ba4\u540c\u5171\u540c\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u3002\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u4f18\u8d27\u5e01\u533a\u57df\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u591a\u4e2a\u53d7\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5404\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u4eba\u5458\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u7531\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u201d\u533a\u57df\u5185\u90e8\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u7531\u6d41\u52a8\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u533a\u57df\u6210\u529f\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u5728\u5730\u533a\u5185\u90e8\u81ea\u7531\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5730\u533a\u95f4\u4e0d\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u5219\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u7528\u4e24\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\u4e4b\u95f4\u6c47\u7387\u5e94\u81ea\u7531\u6d6e\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6d6e\u52a8\u6c47\u7387\u5b89\u6392\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u5148\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5355\u4e00\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4fc3\u6210\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u52b3\u52a1\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u8d8b\u540c\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u57281999\u5e741\u67081\u65e5\u63a8\u51fa\u6b27\u6d32\u5355\u4e00\u8d27\u5e01\u2014\u2014\u6b27\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2000\u5e74\uff1a\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2000\u5e74\uff0c\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc(James Heckman)\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b(Daniel McFadden)\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u6240\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u662f\u5fae\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\u4f30\u8ba1\u7b49\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u7814\u7a76\uff1b\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b\u7684\u79bb\u6563\u9009\u62e9\u884c\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u4e8e1944\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7f57\u62c9\u591a\u5b66\u9662\u6570\u5b66\u672c\u79d1\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\u8f6c\u5411\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c1971\u5e74\u5728\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\uff0c1995\u5e74\u8d77\u4efb\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u5c06\u5fae\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\u521b\u65b0\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u878d\u5408\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u6536\u76ca\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4ef7\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5224\u522b\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u3002\u4ed6\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u6240\u4f5c\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u201c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u6570\u636e\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u4e8c\u9636\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u3002<\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u8005\uff0c\u5bf9\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u57fa\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001\u68c0\u9a8c\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u57281978\u5e74\uff0c\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u5728\u539f\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u53cd\u5e94\u5e02\u573a\u5de5\u8d44\u548c\u5f71\u5b50\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6b64\u540e\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u516c\u5e73\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u7684\u201c\u60c5\u7eea\u201d\u53d8\u91cf\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e0e\u5170\u5fb7\u65af\u7684\u516c\u5e73\u5c31\u4e1a\u65b9\u7a0b\u76f8\u8054\u7acb\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u516c\u5e73\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u6548\u679c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc\u6b64\u524d\u6a21\u578b\u9009\u7528\u6781\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f\u5bf9\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u77eb\u6b63\u3002\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u601d\u60f3\u662f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5bfc\u51fa\u5de5\u4f5c\u65f6\u95f4\u5927\u4e8e0\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u516c\u53f8\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5bf9\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u6781\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\u662f\u5229\u7528\u6781\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u5de5\u8d44\u65b9\u7a0b\u8fdb\u884cOLS\u3001WLS\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bf9\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u8fdb\u884c\u6821\u6b63\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6fc0\u53d1\u4e86\u540e\u7eed\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b1937\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u5317\u5361\u7f57\u6765\u7eb3\u5dde\uff0c\u672c\u79d1\u5728\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u4e60\u7269\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c1950\u5e74\u8f6c\u5411\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c1962\u5e74\u5728\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1990\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4efb\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u8003\u514b\u4e1d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u4ed6\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u79bb\u6563\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u3002<\/strong>\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b\u7814\u7a76\u9009\u62e9\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5373\u75280\u30011\u30012\u30013\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u8d4b\u503c\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u6761\u4ef6\u903b\u8f91\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6761\u4ef6\u903b\u8f91\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u6b64\u540e\u9ea6\u514b\u6cd5\u767b\u53c8\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u8054\u5408\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u591a\u5143\u5d4c\u5957\u903b\u8f91\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u5e7f\u4e49\u6781\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u79bb\u6563\u9009\u62e9\u884c\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u601d\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2001\u5e74\uff1a\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u963f\u514b\u6d1b\u592b\u3001\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u65af\u5f6d\u65af\u548c\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2001\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u4e09\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u963f\u514b\u6d1b\u592b(George Akerlof)\u3001\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u65af\u5f6d\u65af(Michael Spence)\u548c\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328(Joseph Stigliz)\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u4fe1\u606f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u884c\u673a\u5236\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e09\u4eba\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u521b\u7acb\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u8bb8\u591a\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1943\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u5dde\uff0c1967\u5e74\u5230\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u4ec5\u4e09\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u4fbf\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u5728\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u4ece\u4e8b\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c1969\u5e74\uff0c\u88ab\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u8058\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\u5bf9\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u505a\u51fa\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\u5728\u963f\u514b\u6d1b\u592b\u7684\u201c\u9006\u5411\u9009\u62e9\u201d\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u505a\u4e86\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u7504\u522b\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c<\/strong>\u5373\u638c\u63e1\u8f83\u5c11\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u610f\u5411\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8bbe\u7acb\u591a\u9879\u9009\u62e9\u5951\u7ea6\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u65b9\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u300270\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4fdd\u9669\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u5bf9\u987e\u5ba2\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u72b6\u51b5\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u60c5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7d22\u8981\u540c\u6837\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\uff0c\u5219\u53ea\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u5ba2\u6237\u3002\u4f46\u91c7\u53d6\u5206\u9879\u4fdd\u9669\u53ef\u4ee5\u7504\u522b\u51fa\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u8005\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u7504\u522b\u6a21\u578b\u5747\u8861\u5177\u6709\u5178\u578b\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6fc0\u52b1\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u653f\u5e9c\u9002\u5f53\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u65af\u5f6d\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>1943\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u6cfd\u897f\u5dde\uff0c1972\u5e74\u83b7\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u73b0\u517c\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u548c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u4e24\u6240\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u6388\u3001\u6089\u5c3c\u5927\u5b66\u6821\u957f\u3001\u9752\u5c9b\u5927\u5b66\u540d\u8a89\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u9662\u524d\u4efb\u9662\u957f\u548c\u73b0\u4efb\u540d\u8a89\u9662\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u65af\u5f6d\u65af\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u201c\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u4fe1\u606f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u6539\u5584\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u663e\u793a\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c<\/strong>\u5373\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u4fe1\u606f\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u638c\u63e1\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5411\u4fe1\u606f\u8d2b\u4e4f\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u4f20\u9012\u53ef\u9760\u4fe1\u606f\u800c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u83b7\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u901a\u8fc7\u4fe1\u53f7\u663e\u793a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d88\u9664\u9006\u5411\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u91c7\u53d6\u8ba9\u5bf9\u65b9\u76f8\u4fe1\u5176\u4ea7\u54c1\u8d28\u91cf\u6216\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u663e\u793a\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5728\u4fe1\u53f7\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u6709\u663e\u8457\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4fe1\u53f7\u663e\u793a\u624d\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6559\u80b2\u4f5c\u4e3a\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u663e\u793a\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u5047\u5982\u96c7\u4e3b\u5728\u62db\u8058\u65b0\u5de5\u4eba\u65f6\u65e0\u6cd5\u533a\u5206\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u548c\u4f4e\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5219\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5c31\u4f1a\u5145\u65a5\u7740\u4f4e\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u963f\u514b\u6d1b\u592b<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u963f\u514b\u6d1b\u592b1940\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5eb7\u6d85\u72c4\u683c\u5dde\u7ebd\u9ed1\u6587\uff0c1966\u5e74\u83b7\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1980\u5e74\u8d77\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u963f\u514b\u6d1b\u592b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u4e70\u5356\u53cc\u65b9\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u600e\u6837\u5bfc\u81f4\u9006\u5411\u9009\u62e9\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u57281970\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u67e0\u6aac\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u300b\u4e2d\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e70\u65b9\u65e0\u6cd5\u9274\u522b\u4ea7\u54c1\u8d28\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u65e0\u6548\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5356\u65b9\u5206\u522b\u5b58\u5728\u52a3\u8d28\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u5546\u548c\u4f18\u8d28\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u5546\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4f18\u8d28\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u8005\u88ab\u8feb\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u53ea\u7559\u4e0b\u52a3\u8d28\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u5c31\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9006\u5411\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2002\u5e74\uff1a\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u548c\u5f17\u519c\u00b7\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2002\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc(Daniel Kahneman)\u548c\u5f17\u519c\u00b7\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af(Vernon Smith)\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u5229\u7528\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u521b\u65b0\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4fee\u6539\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5f00\u521b\u4e86\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b0\u9886\u57df\u3002\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u5206\u6790\u4f53\u7cfb\u6807\u51c6\u5316\uff0c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc1934\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7279\u62c9\u7ef4\u592b\uff0c1954\u5e74\u5728\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7684\u5e0c\u4f2f\u6765\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1961\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u5728\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u5e0c\u4f2f\u6765\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e0d\u5217\u98a0\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u4efb\u6559\uff0c1993\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u62c5\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52a1\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u628a\u5fc3\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6210\u679c\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u878d\u5408\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u6709\u5173\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u4eba\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4eba\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u6027\u548c\u81ea\u5229\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u5408\u7406\u5229\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6700\u5927\u5316\u5176\u671f\u671b\u6548\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u4eba\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u504f\u5dee\u3002<strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u7b49\u4eba\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u975e\u7406\u6027\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f9d\u7167\u201c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u201d\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5c0f\u6570\u6cd5\u5219\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u6216\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u4e8e\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u505a\u4e3b\u89c2\u5224\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u51b3\u7b56\u884c\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u504f\u79bb\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u539f\u7406\u3002<strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0e\u7279\u7ef4\u65af\u57fa\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u9648\u8ff0\u4e86\u201c\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u3002<\/strong>\u201c\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u56de\u907f\u98ce\u9669\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8d26\u9762\u503c\u635f\u5931\u65f6\u66f4\u52a0\u538c\u6076\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8d26\u9762\u503c\u76c8\u5229\u65f6\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u901f\u5ea6\u51cf\u7f13\uff1b\u201c\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u8fd8\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u5982\u963f\u83b1\u6096\u8bba\u3001\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ea2\u4ef7\u4e4b\u8c1c\u4ee5\u53ca\u671f\u6743\u5fae\u7b11\u7b49\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u5173\u4e8e\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6cd5\u5219\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u8bc1\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u5e38\u65e0\u7f18\u65e0\u6545\u5730\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u843d\u5f88\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5f17\u519c\u00b7\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af1927\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u582a\u8428\u65af\u5dde\u7684\u5a01\u5947\u6258\uff0c1955\u5e74\u83b7\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u666e\u6e21\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u9a6c\u8428\u8bf8\u585e\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u4e9a\u5229\u6851\u90a3\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c2001\u5e74\u8d77\u62c5\u4efb\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u6885\u68ee\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4ed6\u57281982\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u300b\uff0c\u7edf\u4e00\u5f52\u7eb3\u4e86\u5148\u524d\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6240\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u754c\u5b9a\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5e94\u8be5\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u5206\u6790\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/strong>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5728\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a7\u5236\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u5e76\u5206\u6790\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u90fd\u5e94\u7531\u4e09\u5927\u5143\u7d20\u7ec4\u6210\uff1a\u73af\u5883\u3001\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u73af\u5883\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e86\u6bcf\u4f4d\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\u7684\u504f\u597d\u3001\u521d\u59cb\u7684\u8d27\u54c1\u7980\u8d4b\u548c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6c34\u5e73\uff1b\u4f53\u7cfb\u754c\u5b9a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u672f\u8bed\u548c\u6e38\u620f\u89c4\u5219\uff1b\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u4f53\u7cfb\u90fd\u662f\u53ef\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6240\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u504f\u597d\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u4e2a\u4eba\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u4e86\u6d4b\u91cf\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u5b83\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2003\u5e74\uff1a\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u6069\u683c\u5c14\u4e09\u4e16\u548c\u514b\u83b1\u592b\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u6770<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2003\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u6069\u683c\u5c14\u4e09\u4e16(Robert Engle \u2162)\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u83b1\u592b\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u6770(Clive Granger)\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u95f4\u6570\u5217\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u9762\u6240\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u6069\u683c\u5c14\u7684ARCH\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u534f\u6574\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u62d3\u5c55\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5728\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u3001\u65f6\u53d8\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u6069\u683c\u5c14\u4e09\u4e16<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u6069\u683c\u5c141942\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u9521\u62c9\u4e18\u5179\uff0c1966\u5e74\u5728\u5eb7\u5948\u5c14\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\uff0c1969\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1966-1977\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff0c1975\u5e74\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u5723\u8fed\u6208\u5206\u6821\uff0c1999\u5e74\u8f6c\u5230\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u65af\u7279\u6069\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u4efb\u91d1\u878d\u670d\u52a1\u7ba1\u7406\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6069\u683c\u5c14\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u63cf\u8ff0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u65f6\u53d8\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a\u201c\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6761\u4ef6\u5f02\u65b9\u5dee\u201d\uff08ARCH\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u53ca\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/strong>\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5047\u5b9a\u968f\u673a\u8bef\u5dee\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u540c\u65b9\u5dee\u5206\u5e03,\u8fd9\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e8f\u5217\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u548c\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u65f6\u53d8\u7279\u6027\uff0c1982\u5e74\u6069\u683c\u5c14\u521b\u9020\u6027\u5730\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6761\u4ef6\u5f02\u65b9\u5dee\uff08ARCH\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u968f\u540e\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u521b\u5efa\u51fa\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684ARCH-M\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u63cf\u8ff0\u6761\u4ef6\u65b9\u5dee\u6ce2\u52a8\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u7684IGARCH\u6a21\u578b\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u514b\u83b1\u592b\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u6770<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u683c\u5170\u67701934\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u5c31\u8bfb\u4e8e\u8bfa\u4e01\u6c49\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c1955\u5e74\u7559\u6821\u4efb\u6559\uff0c1959\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u4e01\u6c49\u5927\u5b66\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c60\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u53bb\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u505a\u8bbf\u95ee\u5b66\u8005\uff0c1974\u5e74\u79fb\u5c45\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4efb\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u5723\u5730\u4e9a\u54e5\u5206\u6821\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u73b0\u4e3a\u897f\u90e8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u6770\u51fa\u4f1a\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u683c\u5170\u6770\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u7ec4\u5408\u53ef\u4ee5\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u534f\u6574\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u7406\u3002<\/strong>\u534f\u6574\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u6216\u591a\u4e2a\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bfb\u627e\u5176\u5747\u8861\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u683c\u5170\u6770\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u90fd\u662f\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u67d0\u4e9b\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\u5374\u662f\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u957f\u671f\u5747\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u683c\u5170\u6770\u5e94\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u8ba1\u91cf\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5f52\u7eb3\u51fa\u534f\u6574\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u53ca\u5176\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u5305\u542b\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u6784\u5efa\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7edf\u8ba1\u6709\u6548\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u4e3a\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5185\u5728\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4e5f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2004\u5e74\uff1a\u82ac\u6069\u00b7\u57fa\u5fb7\u5170\u5fb7\u548c\u7231\u5fb7\u534e\u00b7\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u79d1\u7279<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2004\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u632a\u5a01\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u82ac\u6069\u00b7\u57fa\u5fb7\u5170\u5fb7(Finn Kydland)\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7231\u5fb7\u534e\u00b7\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u79d1\u7279(Edward Prescott)\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u201c\u52a8\u6001\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\u95f4\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\u201d\u65b9\u9762\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u6770\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u201d\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u7ee7\u5362\u5361\u65af\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u82ac\u6069\u00b7\u57fa\u5fb7\u5170\u5fb7<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u57fa\u5fb7\u5170\u5fb71943\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u632a\u5a01\uff0c1968\u5e74\u4ece\u632a\u5a01\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5de5\u5546\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662\u6bd5\u4e1a\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\uff0c1973\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u00b7\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u5723\u82ad\u82ad\u62c9\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7231\u5fb7\u534e\u00b7\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u79d1\u7279<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u79d1\u72791940\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\uff0c1962\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u65af\u6c83\u65af\u83ab\u5c14\u5b66\u9662\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\uff0c1967\u5e74\u83b7\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u00b7\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u00b7\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\uff0c2013\u5e74\u8d77\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u4e9a\u5229\u6851\u90a3\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u57fa\u5fb7\u5170\u5fb7\u548c\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u5408\u4f5c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u76ee\u6807\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u76f8\u673a\u6289\u62e9\u653f\u7b56\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f7f\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u6700\u5927\u5316\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0d\u662f\u8ddf\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8ddf\u5177\u6709\u9884\u671f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4eba\u535a\u5f08\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u9009\u62e9\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u7406\u6027\u653f\u5e9c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5f53\u5176\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u518d\u7ed9\u5176\u91cd\u65b0\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u822c\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u4f18\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u653f\u5e9c\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u6700\u521d\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u518d\u505a\u51fa\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u6027\u627f\u8bfa\u5c31\u4f1a\u906d\u9047\u4fe1\u4efb\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9020\u6210\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u5e94\u8be5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u89c4\u5219\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u76f8\u673a\u6289\u62e9\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u5f15\u8d77\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u56e0\u7d20\u800c\u662f\u5b9e\u9645\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5168\u8981\u7d20\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\uff08TFP\uff09\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0e\u5404\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8fb9\u754c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5373\u751f\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8fb9\u754c\u53ca\u8d44\u6e90\u7ea6\u675f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2a\u4f53\u8ffd\u6c42\u5229\u76ca\u6700\u5927\u5316\u65f6\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b3\u7b56\u5bf9\u4ea7\u51fa\u9020\u6210\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u3002\u57fa\u5fb7\u5170\u5fb7\u548c\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u5728\u5178\u578b\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5047\u5b9a\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u548c\u5382\u5546\u5229\u6da6\u6700\u5927\u5316\uff09\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u52a8\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u7387\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u751f\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u975e\u5e38\u543b\u5408\uff0c\u57fa\u5fb7\u5170\u5fb7\u548c\u666e\u96f7\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u5468\u671f\u6027\u6ce2\u52a8\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4f9b\u7ed9\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2005\u5e74\uff1a\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5965\u66fc\u548c\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8c22\u6797<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2005\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5965\u66fc\uff08Robert Aumann\uff09\u548c\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8c22\u6797\uff08Thomas Schelling\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u5965\u66fc\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u7406\u6027\u89c2\u70b9\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u7740\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5bf9\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8c22\u6797\u662f\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u9886\u57df\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u5bf9\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u63a8\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5965\u66fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5965\u66fc1930\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u5fb7\u56fd\u6cd5\u5170\u514b\u798f\uff0c1938\u5e74\u642c\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff0c1950\u5e74\u83b7\u7ebd\u7ea6\u57ce\u5e02\u5b66\u9662\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\uff0c1952\u5e74\u83b7\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u6570\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1955\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7eaf\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1956\u5e74\u8d77\u4efb\u8036\u8def\u6492\u51b7\u5e0c\u4f2f\u6765\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5965\u66fc\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4e2d\u76f8\u5173\u5747\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u534f\u4f5c\u578b\u535a\u5f08\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u6bd4\u7ecf\u5178\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u66f4\u52a0\u7075\u6d3b\uff1b2\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8fde\u7eed\u540c\u7ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff1b3\uff09\u91cd\u590d\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u4ea4\u4e92\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8c22\u6797<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8c22\u67971921\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u5965\u514b\u5170\u5e02\uff0c1944\u5e74\u83b7\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u6587\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\uff0c1948\u5e74\u83b7\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u6587\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1951\u83b7\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8c22\u6797\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u201c\u76f4\u9762\u73b0\u8c61\u201d\u7684\u800c\u975e\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u535a\u5f08\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5f00\u521b\u4e86\u5bf9\u8bae\u4ef7\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/strong>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ed6\u6240\u4f5c\u7684\u201c\u79cd\u65cf\u9694\u79bb\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u7eaf\u767d\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u533a\u662f\u600e\u6837\u8fc5\u901f\u53d8\u4e3a\u7eaf\u9ed1\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u533a\u7684\uff1b\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8c22\u6797\u8fd8\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bae\u4ef7\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u679c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u80fd\u591f\u51cf\u5c11\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u8d2b\u7a77\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u5bcc\u88d5\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c06\u627f\u62c5\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2006\u5e74\uff1a\u57c3\u5fb7\u8499\u00b7\u8d39\u5c14\u666e\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>2006\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u57c3\u5fb7\u8499\u00b7\u83f2\u5c14\u666e\u65af(Edmund Phelps)\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u8de8\u671f\u6743\u8861\u5206\u6790\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/strong>\u8d39\u5c14\u666e\u65af\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u9884\u671f\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7406\u89e3,\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u4e3a\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u83f2\u5c14\u666e\u65af1933\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u4f0a\u5229\u4f0a\u5dde\u4f0a\u51e1\u65af\u987f\uff0c1955\u5e74\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u963f\u59c6\u8d6b\u65af\u7279\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u83b7\u6587\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff1b1959\u5e74\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u83b7\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff1b\u5148\u540e\u6267\u6559\u4e8e\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\uff0c1971\u5e74\u8d77\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8d39\u5c14\u666e\u65af\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u9644\u52a0\u9884\u671f\u7684\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u65af\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c<\/strong>\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u5931\u4e1a\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff0c\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u8d39\u5c14\u666e\u65af\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6770\u51fa\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<strong>\u8d39\u5c14\u666e\u65af\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u975e\u534f\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong>\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u6cbf\u7528\u4e86\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd0\u7528\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u81ea\u7136\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3001\u9690\u542b\u5de5\u8d44\u5408\u540c\u3001\u6ede\u540e\u6548\u5e94\u4e0e\u5931\u4e1a\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u5bfb\u627e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\u3002<strong>\u8d39\u5c14\u666e\u65af\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5f8b\u201d\uff0c<\/strong>\u5373\u5c06\u52b3\u52a8\u4e0e\u8d44\u672c\u6bd4\u7387\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574\u52b3\u52a8\u4e0e\u8d44\u672c\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8d39\u5c14\u666e\u65af\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5f8b\u201d\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5206\u6790\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u901f\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u5165\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u6765\u8fbe\u5230\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u65b0\u53d1\u660e\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2007\u5e74\uff1a\u83b1\u6602\u5c3c\u5fb7\u00b7\u8d6b\u7ef4\u5947\u3001\u57c3\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u9a6c\u65af\u91d1\u548c\u7f57\u6770\u00b7\u8fc8\u5c14\u68ee<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2007\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u83b1\u6602\u5c3c\u5fb7\u00b7\u8d6b\u7ef4\u5947\uff08Leonid Hurwicz\uff09\u3001\u57c3\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u9a6c\u65af\u91d1\uff08Eric Maskin\uff09\u548c\u7f57\u6770\u00b7\u8fc8\u5c14\u68ee\uff08Roger Myerson\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u521b\u7acb\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u201c\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u65b9\u9762\u6240\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u8d6b\u7ef4\u5947\u5f00\u521b\u4e86\u201c\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u601d\u60f3\u53ca\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9a6c\u65af\u91d1\u548c\u8fc8\u5c14\u68ee\u5bf9\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\u5e94\u7528\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u83b1\u6602\u5c3c\u5fb7\u00b7\u8d6b\u7ef4\u5947<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8d6b\u7ef4\u59471917\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u6ce2\u5170\uff0c\u540e\u52a0\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u7c4d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8363\u8a89\u6559\u6388\u3002\u4ed6\u65e9\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u534e\u6c99\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8fdb\u5165\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u5e76\u5e08\u4ece\u5361\u5c14\u591a\u548c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u30021939\u5e74\u6765\u5230\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u9662\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8f6c\u5b66\u4e8e\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8d6b\u7ef4\u5947\u5f00\u521b\u4e86\u201c\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u601d\u60f3\u53ca\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u663e\u793a\u539f\u7406\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6700\u4f18\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/strong>\u673a\u5236\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5f7c\u6b64\u4ea4\u6362\u4fe1\u606f\u5e76\u5171\u540c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u6240\u6709\u6210\u5458\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u81ea\u613f\u4ea4\u6362\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7b49\u5206\u6563\u5316\u51b3\u7b56\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f1a\u663e\u793a\u81ea\u5df1\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5747\u8861\u4ea7\u51fa\u3002\u663e\u793a\u539f\u7406\u662f\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u5b83\u5927\u5927\u7b80\u5316\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u6fc0\u52b1\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u57c3\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u9a6c\u65af\u91d1<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u9a6c\u65af\u91d11950\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff0c1972\u5e74\u9a6c\u65af\u91d1\u83b7\u5f97\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\u30021976\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u5e94\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u66fe\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u4efb\u655916\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u4efb\u65598\u5e74\u3002\u4e5f\u662f\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u8bbf\u95ee\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9a6c\u65af\u91d1\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u201c\u673a\u5236\u6267\u884c\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u793e\u4f1a\u4ece\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u6700\u597d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/strong>\u9a6c\u65af\u91d1\u5c06\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u6267\u884c\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u975e\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u8003\u8651\u81ea\u5df1\u5229\u76ca\u65f6\u4f1a\u6309\u7167\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005\u7684\u610f\u56fe\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u673a\u5236\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u4e5f\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u5c06\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5f53\u4eca\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5982\u7a0e\u6536\u3001\u503a\u5238\u548c\u9009\u4e3e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7f57\u6770\u00b7\u8fc8\u5c14\u68ee<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8fc8\u5c14\u68ee1951\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\uff0c1973\u5e74\u30011976\u5e74\u4ed6\u5206\u522b\u83b7\u5f97\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u5e94\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u3001\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u30021979\u5e74\u4ed6\u8fdb\u5165\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e1982\u5e74\u6210\u4e3a\u7ba1\u7406\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u30022001\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4ed6\u6210\u4e3a\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8fc8\u5c14\u68ee\u5bf9\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u5bf9\u663e\u793a\u539f\u7406\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u5316\uff0c\u5373\u663e\u793a\u539f\u7406\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u62e5\u6709\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u65f6\u4e5f\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c06\u5176\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u89c4\u5236\u548c\u62cd\u5356\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2008\u5e74\uff1a\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2008\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc\uff08Paul Krugman\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u53d1\u5c55\u53ca\u201c\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u201d\u9886\u57df\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u65b0\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u548c\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u662f\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc1953\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff0c1974\u5e74\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\uff0c1977\u5e74\u4e8e\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u83b7\u53d6\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u4e8e1982-83\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u804c\u603b\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u30021988\u5e74\uff0c\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u671f\u671b\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\u5e74\u4ee3\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u5371\u673a\u4e0e\u6c47\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u30021991\u5e74\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u5956\u7ae0\u30021996\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u6d41\u884c\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u4e49\u300b\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u800c\u58f0\u540d\u5927\u566a\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u8a00\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u8981\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0b\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7406\u8bba\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u548c\u201c\u65b0\u5730\u7406\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u3002\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u7406\u8bba\u5305\u542b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56db\u65b9\u9762\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a<\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u56fd\u4e0e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u52a8\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7279\u5f81\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u89c4\u6a21\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5206\u5de5\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u5f62\u6210\u56fd\u9645\u52b3\u52a8\u5206\u5de5\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5730\u65b9\u751f\u4ea7\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u56e0\u7d20\u5e38\u8d77\u7740\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5f97\u67d0\u4e2a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5728\u8be5\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u6e90\u5730\u53d1\u5c55\u58ee\u5927\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5173\u7a0e\u7b49\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5177\u6709\u4e24\u9762\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u5272\u6210\u8bb8\u591a\u5c0f\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e0d\u80fd\u6309\u7167\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f18\u52bf\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u5de5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f62\u6210\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u5355\u72ec\u4e00\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1a\u4f7f\u67d0\u4e2a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u5728\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u597d\u5904\u8981\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53c8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e00\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u51fa\u53e3\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u4e34\u65f6\u6027\u5173\u7a0e\u7b49\u63aa\u65bd\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u56fd\u9645\u5206\u5de5\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5b9e\u884c\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<strong>\u65b0\u5730\u7406\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u542b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u65b9\u9762\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a<\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u5728\u5851\u9020\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u533a\u57df\u95f4\u8d38\u6613\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u5173\u952e\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0e\u89c4\u6a21\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u751f\u4ea7\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u8d44\u6e90\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u672c\u5730\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u5e94\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u5730\u533a\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5dee\u5f02\u548c\u5730\u533a\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5382\u5546\uff0c\u800c\u5382\u5546\u7684\u589e\u591a\u5219\u4f1a\u6269\u5927\u5e02\u573a\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f01\u4e1a\u96c6\u805a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u67d0\u4e9b\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u751f\u4ea7\u5730\u70b9\u65b9\u9762\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2009\u5e74\uff1a\u57c3\u8389\u8bfa\u00b7\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u548c\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2009\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee\uff08Oliver Williamson\uff09\u548c\u57c3\u8389\u8bfa\u00b7\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\uff08Elinor Ostrom\uff09\u3002\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee\u56e0\u201c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3001\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u8fb9\u754c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5206\u6790\u201d\u83b7\u5956\u3002\u57c3\u8389\u8bfa\u00b7\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u5219\u56e0\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ba1\u7406\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u201d\u83b7\u5956\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u540c\u5c5e\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6cbb\u7406\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u540c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u5927\u591a\u6570\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u57c3\u8389\u8bfa\u00b7\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u57c3\u8389\u8bfa\u00b7\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u4e8e1933\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\uff0c2012\u5e74\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u5973\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u884c\u653f\u5b66\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u4eab\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u58f0\u8a89\u3002\u81ea1965\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u5206\u6821\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\uff0c\u5979\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\uff0c\u5e76\u521b\u5efa\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e9a\u5229\u6851\u90a3\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u5236\u5ea6\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff081991\uff09\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff082001\uff09\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u534f\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3001\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u5979\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u6cbb\u7406\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u4e0e\u5176\u4e08\u592b\u6587\u68ee\u7279\u00b7\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u5171\u540c\u521b\u7acb\u7684\u591a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5c06\u5236\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5979\u4ece\u5f71\u54cd\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u7b56\u7565\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u6570\uff08\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u3001\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c\u3001\u5185\u5728\u89c4\u8303\u548c\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u4f9b\u7ed9\u3001\u53ef\u4fe1\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u76d1\u7763\u95ee\u9898\u4e0e\u81ea\u4e3b\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u539f\u5219\u7b49\u4e09\u65b9\u9762\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u81ea\u4e3b\u6cbb\u7406\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u591a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52a1\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u591a\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u6307\u51fa\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee5\u5f80\u5206\u6790\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u516c\u5730\u60b2\u5267\u3001\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u52a8\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u6240\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u4e0d\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u516c\u5171\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7ba1\u7406\u6548\u679c\u3001\u6548\u76ca\u548c\u516c\u5e73\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5979\u63d0\u51fa\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u6cbb\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u5171\u7269\u54c1\u7684\u65b0\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u4e14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u9014\u5f84\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u3002\u5979\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u516c\u5171\u5f53\u5c40\u662f\u591a\u5143\u4f53\u5236\u7684\uff0c\u7531\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u516c\u5171\u673a\u6784\u6784\u6210\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u673a\u6784\u5e76\u975e\u53d7\u5230\u5355\u4e00\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u81ea\u53d1\u5730\u521b\u9020\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u516c\u5171\u5f53\u5c40\u4e5f\u662f\u7ade\u4e89\u8005\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u516c\u5171\u5f53\u5c40\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u8c03\u9002\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5965\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u59c6\u521b\u9020\u6027\u5730\u7efc\u5408\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6<\/strong><strong>\u68ee<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee1932\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5de5\u5546\u7ba1\u7406\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff081960\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u5361\u5185\u57fa-\u5fb7\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff081963\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u66fe\u5e08\u4ece\u79d1\u65af\uff081991\u5e74\u8bfa\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\uff09\u548c\u897f\u8499\uff081978\u5e74\u8bfa\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\uff09\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\u5148\u540e\u5728\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u3001\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u9ad8\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548c\u201c\u8036\u9c81\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662\u201d\u62c5\u4efb\u9662\u957f\u7b49\u804c\u4f4d\uff0c\u81ea1998\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u62c5\u4efb\u201c\u7231\u5fb7\u534e\u00b7F\u00b7\u51ef\u6cfd\u201d\u540d\u8a89\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u548c\u6cd5\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u5165\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u5bf9\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65e7\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u9769\u65b0\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u201c\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201d\u7684\u547d\u540d\u8005\uff0c\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u91cd\u65b0\u53d1\u73b0\u201c\u79d1\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u201d\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u6c47\u603b\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u6cd5\u5b66\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u5b66\u79d1\u4ea4\u53c9\u7684\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4ea4\u6613\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u8fdb\u884c\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u63a8\u5e7f\u4e86\u79d1\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u79d1\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u4e3a\u6b63\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u800c\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee\u5219\u5bf9\u4ec0\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u5230\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5177\u4f53\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f15\u8d77\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u5145\u6ee1\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u89d2\u8272\u6570\u76ee\u5f88\u5c0f\u65f6\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u9ad8\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u4e13\u7528\u6027\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5382\u5546\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u9ad8\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\uff08\u5373\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\uff09\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u8fd8\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u5185\u90e8\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\uff08\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u66ff\u4ee3\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u66f4\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u601d\u8def\u6765\u5206\u6790\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u516c\u53f8\u6cbb\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u6218\u7565\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ed3\u6784\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u4e5f\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u516c\u5171\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u6cbb\u7406\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2010\u5e74\uff1a\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u3001\u6234\u5c14\u00b7\u83ab\u6ed5\u68ee\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u76ae\u8428\u91cc\u5fb7\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2010\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7531\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\uff08Peter Diamond\uff09\u3001\u6234\u5c14\u00b7\u83ab\u6ed5\u68ee\uff08Dale T. Mortensen\uff09\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u76ae\u8428\u91cc\u5fb7\u65af\uff08Christopher Pissarides\uff09\u5171\u4eab\u3002\u8fd9\u4e09\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u56e0\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u201d\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u201c\u5b58\u5728\u641c\u5bfb\u6469\u64e6\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u201d\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5728\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e09\u4eba\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6a21\u578b\uff08DMP\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u201c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u548c\u7a7a\u7f3a\u5c97\u4f4d\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u6234\u8499\u5fb7<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u751f\u4e8e1940\u5e74\uff0c\u572823\u5c81\u65f6\u5c31\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\uff081963-1966\u5e74\uff09\u4efb\u6559\u4e09\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff081966\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\uff09\u62c5\u4efb\u6559\u804c\u81f3\u4eca\u30022002\u81f32003\u5e74\uff0c\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u88ab\u63a8\u9009\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u534f\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u572825\u5c81\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u503a\u52a1\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2a\u4f53\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u6027\uff0c\u5bf9\u62c9\u59c6\u9f50\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6539\u9020\uff0c\u7eb3\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u4ee3\u9645\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u4e16\u4ee3\u4ea4\u53e0\u6a21\u578b\uff0c<\/strong>\u66f4\u8d34\u8fd1\u4e8e\u73b0\u5b9e\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u5236\u5ea6\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e00\u4e3e\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u5728\u516c\u5171\u8d22\u653f\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u30021971\u5e74\uff0c\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u548c\u7c73\u5c14\u5229\u65af\u5408\u4f5c\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u6700\u4f18\u7a0e\u5236\u4e0e\u516c\u5171\u751f\u4ea7\uff1a(I)\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u3001(II)\u7a0e\u6536\u89c4\u5219\u300b\u4f7f\u6700\u4f18\u7a0e\u5236\u7406\u8bba\u7ec8\u6210\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8003\u8651\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u6700\u5927\u5316\u65f6\u6700\u4f18\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5904\u4e8e\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6709\u6548\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u201c\u62c9\u59c6\u9f50-\u6234\u8499\u5fb7-\u7c73\u5c14\u5229\u65af\u7a0e\u6536\u6cd5\u5219\u201d\u3002\u540c\u5e74\uff0c\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u57fa\u4e8e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6c42\u804c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u52b3\u8d44\u53cc\u65b9\u5b58\u5728\u641c\u5bfb\u9002\u5408\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8d44\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u548c\u5373\u4fbf\u9002\u5408\u4f46\u56e0\u5de5\u8d44\u672a\u80fd\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u800c\u6c42\u804c\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u7b26\u7684\u4f9b\u6c42\u51fa\u73b0\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u5339\u914d\u6216\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5339\u914d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u5c40\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u641c\u5bfb\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e9b\u5fae\u7684\u641c\u5bfb\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u5e73\u8861\u201d\u6a21\u5f0f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u6234\u5c14\u00b7\u83ab\u6ed5\u68ee<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u6234\u5c14\u00b7\u83ab\u6ed5\u68ee\u751f\u4e8e1939\u5e74\uff0c\u4e8e2014\u5e74\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u7c4d\uff0c\u5728\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\u3002\u9664\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u679c\u662f\u5728\u5de5\u4f5c\u641c\u5bfb\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u52b3\u5de5\u79fb\u52a8\u7387\u548c\u518d\u5b89\u7f6e\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u83ab\u6ed5\u68ee\u548c\u76ae\u8428\u91cc\u5fb7\u65af\u5bf9\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u7684\u641c\u5bfb\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u62d3\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684DMP\u6a21\u578b(Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides Model)\u3002<\/strong>DMP\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5de5\u4eba\u5728\u96c7\u4f63\u540e\u7684\u5373\u671f\u5de5\u8d44\u6536\u5165\u548c\u5931\u53bb\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u9884\u671f\u635f\u5931\u4e2d\u53d6\u820d\uff0c\u5382\u5546\u5728\u7ef4\u6301\u7a7a\u7f3a\u804c\u4f4d\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u6210\u672c\u548c\u96c7\u7528\u5de5\u4eba\u586b\u8865\u7a7a\u7f3a\u804c\u4f4d\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4ef7\u503c\u4e2d\u53d6\u820d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u641c\u5bfb\u6469\u64e6\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u6570\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u8d44\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8bfa\u5956\u8bc4\u59d4\u4f1a\u5728\u9881\u5956\u65f6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u201c\u89c4\u7ae0\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3001\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u548c\u5de5\u8d44\u201d\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u201c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5916\u7684\u5176\u5b83\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bb6\u5ead\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u76ae\u8428\u91cc\u5fb7\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u76ae\u8428\u91cc\u5fb7\u65af\u5177\u6709\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u585e\u6d66\u8def\u65af\u53cc\u91cd\u56fd\u7c4d\uff0c\u4e8e1948\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u585e\u6d66\u8def\u65af\uff0c\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff081973\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u5728\u5357\u5b89\u666e\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u4e60\u4e09\u5e74\uff081974-1976\u5e74\uff09\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u4efb\u6559\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u76ae\u8428\u91cc\u5fb7\u65af\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u52b3\u5de5\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95f4\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u641c\u5bfb\u548c\u5339\u914d\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u5931\u4e1a\u5339\u914d\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u51fd\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4f30\u7b97\u548c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u589e\u957f\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2011\u5e74\uff1a\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u91d1\u7279\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u897f\u59c6\u65af<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2011\u5e74\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u91d1\u7279\uff08Thomas Sargent\uff09\u548c\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u897f\u59c6\u65af\uff08Christopher Sims\uff09\u56e0\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956,\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6307\u5bfc\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u91d1\u7279<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u91d1\u7279\uff0c1943\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u7c4d\uff0c1968\u5e74\u83b7\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\u5148\u540e\u6267\u6559\u4e8e\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>70\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8428\u91d1\u7279\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u9886\u8896\u4eba\u7269\u548c\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\uff0c\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c<\/strong>\u548c\u534e\u52d2\u65af\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u4e86\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5747\u8861\u7684\u9a6c\u978d\u8def\u5f84\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u5316\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u65e0\u6548\u6027\u547d\u9898\u3002\u8428\u91d1\u7279\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u7528\u7ed3\u6784\u5b8f\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6765\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u5f81\u670d\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u300b\u4e2d\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7eaa\u516d\u5341\u5230\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b9e\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e8b\u6001\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9884\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u653f\u7b56\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u897f\u59c6\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u897f\u59c6\u65af\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e1942\u5e74\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u7c4d\uff0c1968\u5e74\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\u7559\u6821\u4efb\u6559\uff081968-1970\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u524d\u5f80\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\uff081970-1990\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u62c5\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u9662\u58eb\uff081988\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff081989\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u897f\u59c6\u65af\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5e94\u7528\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4ed6\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u201c\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u201d\uff08VAR\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u77ed\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u82e5\u5e72\u9636\u6ede\u540e\u53d8\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u5f52\u5143\uff0c\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u8054\u5408\u5185\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4f20\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u4f7f\u5f97\u897f\u59c6\u65af\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5728\u52a8\u6001\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u6a21\u62df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e34\u65f6\u6027\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5982\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u521b\u9020\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2012\u5e74\uff1a\u963f\u5c14\u6587\u00b7\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u52b3\u57c3\u5fb7\u00b7\u6c99\u666e\u5229<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2012\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u963f\u5c14\u6587\u00b7\u7f57\u65af\uff08Alvin Roth\uff09\u548c\u52b3\u57c3\u5fb7\u00b7\u6c99\u666e\u5229\uff08Lloyd Shapley\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5339\u914d\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5b9e\u8df5\u201d\u4e0a\u7684\u5353\u8d8a\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u4ef7\u683c\u673a\u5236\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u6325\u914d\u7f6e\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4e24\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u673a\u5236\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\u5e94\u5f53\u5982\u4f55\u5339\u914d\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u51fa\u4e86\u4f18\u5316\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5339\u914d\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u963f\u5c14\u6587\u00b7\u7f57\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u963f\u5c14\u6587\u00b7\u7f57\u65af\u4e8e1951\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c1974\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u5728\u4f0a\u5229\u8bfa\u4f0a\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u5339\u5179\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u6267\u6559\u30021998\u5e74\uff0c\u7f57\u65af\u6765\u5230\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e2012\u5e74\u91cd\u65b0\u56de\u5230\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e00\u76f4\u4fdd\u7559\u7740\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u8363\u8a89\u9000\u4f11\u6559\u6388\u7684\u8363\u8a89\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u56f4\u7ed5\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u505a\u51fa\u3002\u5728\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u914d\u7f6e\u7406\u8bba\u95ee\u4e1620\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u64c5\u957f\u4e8e\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u7684\u7f57\u65af\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f4f\u9662\u533b\u751f\u914d\u7f6e\u8ba1\u5212\uff08NRMP\uff09\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u7b49\u4ef7\u4e8e\u76d6\u5c14-\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c<\/strong>\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u7279\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u624d\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\u914d\u7f6e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5982\u7f57\u65af\u5e2e\u52a9\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u7ebd\u7ea6\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u5339\u914d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08\u6311\u9009\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff09\u548c\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u80be\u810f\u79fb\u690d\u8ba1\u5212\uff08\u6362\u80be\u673a\u5236\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u52b3\u57c3\u5fb7\u00b7\u6c99\u666e\u5229<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u52b3\u57c3\u5fb7\u00b7\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e1923\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u671f\u95f4\u52a0\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u822a\u7a7a\u90e8\u961f\uff0c\u524d\u5f80\u4e2d\u56fd\u652f\u63f4\u6297\u65e5\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u671f\u95f4\u8fd8\u56e0\u7834\u89e3\u4e86\u524d\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u6c14\u8c61\u5bc6\u7801\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u94dc\u8d28\u52cb\u7ae0\u3002\u6218\u4e89\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\uff0c\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u8fd4\u56de\u54c8\u4f5b\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b66\u4e1a\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u5c06\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u4e00\u822c\u89e3\u201c\u6838\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5f15\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f15\u9886\u4e86\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u516c\u5e73\u5206\u914d\u7684\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u503c\u516c\u5f0f\uff08\u5373\u6309\u7167\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e0e\u6240\u5f97\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\u539f\u5219\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u914d\uff09\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u914d\u7f6e\u7406\u8bba\u4ee5\u53ca\u53cc\u8fb9\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u76d6\u5c14-\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u5339\u914d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4f7f\u53cc\u65b9\u4e0d\u613f\u6253\u7834\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5339\u914d\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fdd\u6301\u5339\u914d\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5927\u5b66\u5f55\u53d6\u548c\u5a5a\u59fb\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u300b\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u7537\u5973\u5a5a\u914d\u8fd9\u4e00\u53cc\u8fb9\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u548c\u76d6\u5c14\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u76d6\u5c14-\u6c99\u666e\u5229\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u5ef6\u8fdf\u63a5\u53d7\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u8f6e\u914d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u90fd\u7531\u6240\u6709\u7537\u4eba\u5bf9\u8be5\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u9009\u62e9\u53d1\u51fa\u5a5a\u7ea6\u9080\u8bf7\uff0c\u5973\u4eba\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u9080\u8bf7\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u6709\u9650\u8f6e\u6b21\u914d\u5bf9\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\uff1b\u7537\u4eba\u53d1\u51fa\u9080\u8bf7\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u914d\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u7537\u65b9\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u7684\uff1b\u4e14\u4ec5\u5f53\u7537\u4eba\u548c\u5973\u4eba\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u914d\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\u81f4\u65f6\uff0c\u624d\u6709\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u6027\u3001\u6700\u4f18\u6027\u548c\u552f\u4e00\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2013\u5e74\uff1a\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b\u3001\u62c9\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u6c49\u68ee\u548c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b\uff08Eugene F. Fama\uff09\u3001\u62c9\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u6c49\u68ee\uff08Lars Hansen\uff09\u548c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2\uff08Robert J. Shiller\uff09\u56e0\u201c\u5bf9\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u201d\u800c\u4e00\u8d77\u83b7\u5f972013\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u4e09\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u76ee\u524d\u5bf9\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4f9d\u8d56\u6ce2\u52a8\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6469\u64e6\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u6cd5\u739b\u548c\u6c49\u68ee\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c,\u8bc4\u5956\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e74\u5c06\u5956\u9879\u6388\u4e88\u5b66\u672f\u89c2\u70b9\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e09\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u6d25\u6d25\u4e50\u9053\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5c24\u91d1<\/strong><strong>\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b1939\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\uff0c\u7f8e\u7c4d\u610f\u5927\u5229\u88d4\u79fb\u6c11\uff0c1964\u5e74\u83b7\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\u7559\u6821\u4efb\u6559\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u62c5\u4efb\u8fc7\u591a\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8457\u540d\u671f\u520a\u7684\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u534f\u4f1a\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u534f\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6cd5\u739b\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\uff0c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u5176\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u57281970\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u201d\u3002<\/strong>\u201c\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u201d\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u6d41\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\u5360\u636e\u91cd\u8981\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5047\u8bf4\u4ee5\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5177\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7406\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u80fd\u591f\u8fc5\u901f\u53cd\u5e94\u4f5c\u4e3a\u524d\u63d0\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u5065\u5168\u3001\u529f\u80fd\u826f\u597d\u3001\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u9ad8\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u5145\u5206\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5df2\u7ecf\u53ca\u65f6\u3001\u51c6\u786e\u3001\u5145\u5206\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u80a1\u4ef7\u8d70\u52bf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u4ee5\u5f80\u4ef7\u683c\u83b7\u5f97\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u5229\u6da6\u30021992\u5e74\uff0c\u6cd5\u739b\u4e0e\u80af\u5c3c\u601d\u00b7\u5f17\u4f26\u5947\u5171\u540c\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u6cd5\u739b-\u5f17\u4f26\u5947\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff0c\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u8d44\u672c\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5386\u53f2\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u53d7\u54ea\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\u89c4\u6a21\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3001\u5e02\u51c0\u7387\u6ea2\u4ef7\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u662f\u663e\u8457\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u62c9\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u6c49\u68ee<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u62c9\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u6c49\u68ee1952\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c1974\u5e74\u5728\u72b9\u4ed6\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1978\u5e74\u83b7\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u81ea1981\u5e74\u8d77\u5728\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\u81f3\u4eca\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6c49\u68ee\u4e0e\u6cd5\u739b\u540c\u5c5e\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u68c0\u6d4b\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53731982\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5e7f\u4e49\u77e9\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08GMM\uff09\u3002GMM\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u5b9e\u9645\u53c2\u6570\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e00\u5b9a\u77e9\u6761\u4ef6\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u968f\u673a\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u968f\u673a\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u5b58\u5728\u5f02\u65b9\u5dee\u548c\u5e8f\u5217\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/strong>\u6c49\u68ee\u5c06GMM\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u4f17\u591a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5982\u4ecaGMM\u5df2\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u6c49\u68ee\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u4e0e\u8428\u91d1\u7279\u4e00\u540c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u6269\u5145\u7a33\u5b9a\u63a7\u5236\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ed6\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u5b9a\u4ef7\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u57282008\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u9010\u6e10\u8f6c\u5411\u5bf9\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u8bc4\u4f30\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d21946\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4e8e1972\u5e74\u83b7\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c1980\u5e74\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u5c40\uff08NBER\uff09\u52a9\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c31\u804c\u4e8e\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u4e5f\u662fMacro Markets\u6295\u8d44\u7ba1\u7406\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u548c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff082005\uff09\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff082006-2007\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5e2d\u52d2\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u65b0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u6210\u5458\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u4e0d\u52a8\u4ea7\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u9053\u5fb7\u5224\u65ad\u3001\u516c\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u6709\u663e\u8457\u6210\u7ee9\u3002<\/strong>1993\u5e74\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u5728\u300a\u5b8f\u89c2\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u5efa\u7acb\u7ba1\u7406\u793e\u4f1a\u6700\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u673a\u5236\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u591a\u79cd\u65b0\u578b\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u5408\u540c\uff0c\u5982\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u6216\u4e0d\u52a8\u4ea7\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u540c\uff0c\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u9886\u57df\u6380\u8d77\u4e00\u573a\u9002\u5e94\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u53ca\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u9769\u547d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b\u7684\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u89c2\u70b9\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u575a\u4fe1\u5e02\u573a\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u9664\u4e86\u7531\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u503c\u51b3\u5b9a\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u53d7\u5230\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6ce1\u6cab\u662f\u7531\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5e2d\u52d2\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u7531\u52a0\u901f\u5176\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u9020\u6210\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u7531\u5b83\u7684\u653e\u5927\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\u9020\u6210\u3002\u5e2d\u52d21989\u5e74\u5728\u300a\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u8fd0\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u6295\u673a\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\uff1b2000\u5e74\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u8363\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u5bf91982\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u7e41\u8363\u5c55\u5f00\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6295\u673a\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u8bc1\u5238\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u8a002000\u5e74\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c2008\u5e74\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u7834\u706d\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2014\u5e74\uff1a\u8ba9\u00b7\u68af\u82e5\u5c14<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2014\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u8ba9\u00b7\u68af\u82e5\u5c14\uff08Jean 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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2015\u5e74\uff1a\u5b89\u683c\u65af\u00b7\u8fea\u987f<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2015\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u5b89\u683c\u65af\u00b7\u8fea\u987f\uff08Angus 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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2016\u5e74\uff1a\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u54c8\u7279\u548c\u672c\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4f26<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2016\u5e74\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u54c8\u7279\uff08Oliver Hart\uff09\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u672c\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4f26\uff08Bengt 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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u54c8\u7279<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u5965\u5229\u5f17\u00b7\u54c8\u72791948\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\uff0c\u540e\u52a0\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u7c4d\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u653b\u8bfb\u6570\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ea7\u751f\u6d53\u539a\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\u8f6c\u6295\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u5728\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u534e\u5a01\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff081972\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff081974\u5e74\uff09\u3002\u535a\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\uff0c\u54c8\u7279\u56de\u5230\u82f1\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u827e\u585e\u514b\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u62c5\u4efb\u8bb2\u5e08\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u54c8\u7279\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u9488\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u4e0e\u6536\u8d2d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c<\/strong>\u5728\u827e\u585e\u514b\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u62c5\u4efb\u8bb2\u5e08\u7684\u524d\u4e09\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u516d\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5747\u8861\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u3002\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u4efb\u6559\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u54c8\u7279\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u5fc3\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e0e\u6851\u798f\u5fb7\u00b7\u683c\u7f57\u65af\u66fc\u3001\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7a46\u5c14\u7b49\u5408\u4f5c\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u6240\u6709\u6743\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\uff1a\u7eb5\u5411\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u548c\u6a2a\u5411\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u548c\u300a\u4ea7\u6743\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u300b\u8fd9\u4e24\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u5951\u7ea6\u5269\u4f59\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e24\u4f01\u4e1a\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u4f8b\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u5269\u4f59\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u5728\u5951\u7ea6\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u6027\u65f6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u4ece\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u5951\u7ea6\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ea7\u6743\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b0\u6846\u67b6GHM\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u4e13\u7528\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4e8b\u524d\u3001\u4e8b\u540e\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u6700\u4f18\u6240\u6709\u6743\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u4efb\u6559\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u54c8\u7279\u5728\u300a\u4f01\u4e1a\u3001\u5951\u7ea6\u4e0e\u8d22\u52a1\u7ed3\u6784\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u5c06\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u5951\u7ea6\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u79d1\u65af\u3001\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u68ee\u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u4ea7\u6743\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u201c\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u5408\u540c\u201d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u5373\u4f7f\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5951\u7ea6\u96be\u4ee5\u660e\u786e\u5199\u6e05\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e2d\u7684\u6743\u5229\u4e0e\u4e49\u52a1\uff0c\u4e09\u662f\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u5951\u7ea6\u4e2d\u5199\u6e05\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e2d\u7684\u6743\u5229\u4e0e\u4e49\u52a1\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u5951\u7ea6\u7ea0\u7eb7\u65f6\u6cd5\u9662\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u673a\u6784\u4e5f\u5f88\u96be\u5bf9\u5951\u7ea6\u5404\u65b9\u7ea6\u5b9a\u7684\u6761\u6b3e\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u54c8\u7279\u4e2d\u540e\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u5951\u7ea6\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/strong>1996\u5e74\u52302007\u5e74\uff0c\u54c8\u7279\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u5951\u7ea6\u7406\u8bba\u540e\uff0c\u54c8\u7279\u7b49\u4eba\u56f4\u7ed5\u7740\u7ecf\u5178\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u5951\u7ea6\u7406\u8bba\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u6709\u5b9e\u8df5\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u4f01\u4e1a\u503a\u52a1\u507f\u4ed8\u3001\u7834\u4ea7\u7a0b\u5e8f\u3001\u6cbb\u7406\u7ed3\u6784\u4ee5\u53ca\u5951\u7ea6\u53c2\u7167\u70b9\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95ee\u9898\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u62d3\u5c55\u30022008\u5e74\uff0c\u54c8\u7279\u4e0e\u7a46\u5c14\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u7167\u70b9\u7684\u5951\u7ea6\u300b\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86GHM\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u7f3a\u9677\uff1a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e8b\u524d\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u4e8b\u540e\u6548\u7387\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u7ec4\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data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u672c\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4f26<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u672c\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4f261949\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u82ac\u5170\uff0c1978\u5e74\u5728\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u83b7\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u5728\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\uff081979-1982\u5e74\uff09\u3001\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\uff081983-1994\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff081994\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\uff09\u6267\u6559\u3002\u4ed6\u62e5\u6709\u745e\u5178\u65af\u5fb7\u54e5\u5c14\u6469\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u548c\u82ac\u5170\u6c49\u80af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u540d\u8a89\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u66fe\u5f53\u9009\u745e\u5178\u7687\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff082001\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff082011\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u970d\u5c14\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4f26\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5951\u7ea6\u548c\u6fc0\u52b1\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u6267\u884c\u8865\u507f\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u5951\u7ea6\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u6267\u6559\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u59d4\u6258\u4eba-\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u57fa\u4e8e\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u539f\u5219\u201d\u5c06\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u7684\u85aa\u916c\u4e0e\u7ee9\u6548\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5236\u5b9a\u4e00\u4efd\u6700\u4f73\u5951\u7ea6\u3002\u5728\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u5982\u4f55\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4f01\u4e1a\u9ad8\u7ba1\u7684\u85aa\u916c\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u56e2\u961f\u4e2d\u7684\u6210\u5458\u5077\u61d2\u60c5\u51b5\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5728\u5951\u7ea6\u7406\u8bba\u9886\u57df\u8d21\u732e\u4e30\u539a\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2017\u5e74\uff1a\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u585e\u52d2<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2017\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u585e\u52d2(Richard Thaler)\u56e0\u5bf9\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u800c\u83b7\u5956\u3002\u585e\u52d2\u5c06\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5047\u8bbe\u878d\u5165\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a2\u8ba8\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u504f\u597d\u53ca\u7f3a\u4e4f\u81ea\u5236\u529b\u7b49\u4e2a\u4eba\u7279\u8d28\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4e2a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u585e\u52d21954\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u7f57\u5f7b\u65af\u7279\u5927\u5b66\u53d6\u5f97\u6587\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u5728\u7f57\u5f7b\u65af\u7279\u5927\u5b66\uff081971-1978\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u5eb7\u5948\u5c14\u5927\u5b66\uff081978-1995\u5e74\uff09\u6267\u6559\uff0c\u81ea1995\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u5728\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u884c\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u51b3\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u5c40\uff08NBER\uff09\u517c\u804c\uff0c\u5e76\u62c5\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u585e\u52d2\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u4ea4\u53c9\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u53cd\u5e38\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4eba\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u7980\u8d4b\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u8de8\u671f\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u8d26\u6237\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u7b49\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9610\u91ca\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u585e\u52d2\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u53cd\u5e38\u884c\u4e3a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u7d22\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u7528\u524d\u666f\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f46\u76f4\u5230\u7279\u6c83\u65af\u57fa\u548c\u5361\u5185\u66fc\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u524d\u666f\u7406\u8bba\uff1a\u98ce\u9669\u51b3\u7b56\u5206\u6790\u300b\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u4f9d\u636e\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u542f\u8499\uff0c\u585e\u52d2\u5f00\u59cb\u8fd0\u7528\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u51fd\u6570\u66ff\u4ee3\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u624d\u786e\u5b9a\u5728\u53cd\u5e38\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7ee7\u7eed\u6df1\u5165\u3002\u57281987\u81f31990\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u585e\u52d2\u8fd0\u7528\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7b49\u4f17\u591a\u4ea4\u53c9\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u591a\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u53cd\u5e38\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7406\u6027\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4eba\u5047\u8bbe\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4eba\u5f80\u5f80\u51ed\u76f4\u89c9\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u5047\u8bbe\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7b80\u5316\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u5047\u8bbe\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6279\u5224\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u524d\u671f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u585e\u52d2\u9488\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u73b0\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7980\u8d4b\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u8de8\u671f\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u8d26\u6237\u548c\u50a8\u84c4\u7406\u8bba\u7b49\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5229\u5bb3\u7684\u6743\u8861\u662f\u4e0d\u5747\u8861\u7684\uff1b\u6d89\u53ca\u8de8\u671f\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdd\u53cd\u7406\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u5047\u8bf4\uff1b\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6765\u6e90\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u503e\u5411\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u503e\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2000\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u585e\u52d2\u9010\u6e10\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u5206\u6790\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u3002\u585e\u52d2\u57fa\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7279\u6027\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u52a9\u63a8\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7b49\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f97\u4ee5\u9769\u65b0\u4ee5\u53ca\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2018\u5e74\uff1a\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\u548c\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u7f57\u9ed8<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section>2018\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\uff08William D. Nordhaus\uff09\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u9ed8\uff08Paul M. Romer\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u521b\u65b0\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\u662f\u73af\u5883\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u8005\uff0c\u5960\u5b9a\u201c\u7eff\u8272GDP\u201d\u6838\u7b97\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89d2\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c\u4e0e\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u5408\u8457\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\u4e3a\u516c\u4f17\u6240\u719f\u77e5\u3002\u7f57\u9ed8\u662f\u5185\u751f\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u521b\u5efa\u8005\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u5baa\u7ae0\u57ce\u5e02\u201d\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u96c6\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u3001\u4e16\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u8eab\u4efd\u4e8e\u4e00\u8eab\u3002<\/section>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af1941\u5e74\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u5dde\uff0c1967\u5e74\u83b7\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e08\u4ece\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u548c\u7d22\u6d1b\u7b49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5927\u5e08\uff0c1977-1979\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u5e76\u66fe\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4efb\u804c\u30021986\u5e74-1988\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u52a1\u957f\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u957f\u671f\u5728\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\uff0c\u73b0\u4e3a\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u201c\u65af\u7279\u6797\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u6c14\u5019-\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53cc\u5411\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6a21\u62df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u5982\u4f55\u5171\u540c\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u573a\u666f\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u6700\u4f18\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/strong>\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e09\u4e2a\u6a21\u5757\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u7ec4\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u5927\u7248\u672c\uff1a\u533a\u57df\u7efc\u5408\u6c14\u5019-\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff08RICE\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a8\u6001\u7efc\u5408\u6c14\u5019-\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff08DICE\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u6a21\u62df\u51fa\u4fdd\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\u6216\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5c06\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f15\u5411\u5e73\u8861\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u5408\u7406\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<strong>\u4e8c\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/strong>\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\u4e8e1975\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u300b\uff0c\u88ab\u5f15\u6b21\u6570\u9ad8\u8fbe4786\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u653f\u515a\u653f\u6cbb\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u4ea7\u751f\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7ec4\u6210\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u653f\u515a\u548c\u5b98\u5458\u90fd\u662f\u7406\u6027\u81ea\u5229\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u5176\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6765\u6e90\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6267\u653f\u515a\u548c\u5728\u4efb\u5b98\u5458\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e0b\u5c4a\u8fde\u4efb\u3002\u800c\u9009\u6c11\u5177\u6709\u4e24\u5927\u7279\u70b9\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u6839\u636e\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7b49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5426\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u8f83\u4e3a\u77ed\u89c6\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u5bf9\u5176\u6295\u7968\u51b3\u7b56\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6267\u653f\u515a\u548c\u5728\u4efb\u5b98\u5458\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u524d\u901a\u8fc7\u8d22\u653f\u6269\u5f20\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6765\u5438\u5f15\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u540e\u518d\u8fdb\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u7d27\u7f29\u5f25\u8865\u8d64\u5b57\u6291\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u5b9a\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u548c\u653f\u515a\u64cd\u7eb5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51fa\u73b0\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u548c\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u7f57\u9ed8<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u7f57\u9ed81955\u5e74\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u7f57\u62c9\u591a\u5dde\uff0c\u7236\u4eb2\u7f57\u4f0a\u00b7\u7f57\u9ed8\u66fe\u4efb\u79d1\u7f57\u62c9\u591a\u5dde\u5dde\u957f\u3002\u7f57\u9ed8\u4e8e1983\u5e74\u83b7\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u5728\u7f57\u5f7b\u65af\u7279\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u3001\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u4efb\u6559\u30022001\u5e74\u521b\u7acb\u4ee5\u201c\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ed8\u8d39\u201d\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684Aplia\uff0c\u6c47\u96c6\u5404\u7c7b\u79d1\u76ee\u4e0e\u6743\u5a01\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u76f8\u5bf9\u63a5\u7684\u7f51\u4e0a\u9884\u4e60\u3001\u590d\u4e60\u3001\u7f51\u4e0a\u6d4b\u9a8c\u7b49\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u7f57\u9ed8\u66fe\u4efb\u603b\u88c1\uff0c\u540e\u5c06Aplia\u51fa\u552e\u7ed9Cengage Learning\u30022016\u5e7410\u6708\u81f32018\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u7f57\u9ed8\u62c5\u4efb\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u517c\u9ad8\u7ea7\u526f\u884c\u957f\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u65af\u7279\u6069\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7f57\u9ed8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5185\u751f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong>1986\u5e74\uff0c\u7f57\u9ed8\u5728\u300a\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u589e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u4f7f\u81ea\u8eab\u5f62\u6210\u9012\u589e\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u80fd\u4f7f\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u7b49\u8981\u7d20\u4e5f\u4ea7\u751f\u9012\u589e\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6574\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u589e\uff0c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u30021990\u5e74\uff0c\u7f57\u9ed8\u5728\u300a\u5185\u751f\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u300b\u4e2d\u53c8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5185\u751f\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5373\u56db\u8981\u7d20\u4e09\u90e8\u95e8\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u5185\u751f\u589e\u957f\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u7f57\u9ed8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\uff081\uff09\u589e\u957f\u7387\u968f\u7740\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5927\u529b\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u5f00\u53d1\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u6587\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5bf9\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u589e\u5fc5\u4e0d\u53ef\u5c11\u3002\uff083\uff09\u7531\u4e8e\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u4e13\u5229\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u6027\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3001\u4e2d\u95f4\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\u3001\u6700\u7ec8\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u8865\u8d34\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5b9e\u65bd\u6709\u671f\u9650\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ea7\u6743\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\uff084\uff09\u5f00\u653e\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u6280\u672f\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u4e0e\u79ef\u7d2f\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2019\u5e74\uff1a\u963f\u6bd4\u5409\u7279\u00b7\u73ed\u7eb3\u5409\u3001\u57c3\u4e1d\u7279\u00b7\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b\u548c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u514b\u96f7\u9ed8<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><strong>2019\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u88ab\u6388\u4e88\u963f\u6bd4\u5409\u7279\u00b7\u73ed\u7eb3\u5409\uff08Abhijit Banerjee\uff09\u3001\u57c3\u4e1d\u7279\u00b7\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b\uff08Esther Duflo\uff09\u548c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u514b\u96f7\u9ed8\uff08Michael Kremer\uff09\u4e09\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u8d2b\u56f0\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4e09\u4f4d\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f15\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e00\u66fe\u7ecf\u5931\u53bb\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u91cd\u73b0\u751f\u673a\uff0c\u5176\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u662f\u5927\u5927\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u6297\u51fb\u5168\u7403\u8d2b\u56f0\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u963f\u6bd4\u5409\u7279\u00b7\u73ed\u7eb3\u5409<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u73ed\u7eb3\u5409\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u798f\u7279\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u30021961\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u5370\u5ea6\u5b5f\u4e70\uff0c\u66fe\u5c31\u8bfb\u4e8e\u5370\u5ea6\u52a0\u5c14\u5404\u7b54\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u8d3e\u74e6\u54c8\u62c9\u5c14\u00b7\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\uff0c1988\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u66fe\u4efb\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u3001\u53e4\u6839\u6d77\u59c6\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u53ca\u827e\u5c14\u5f17\u96f7\u5fb7\u00b7\u65af\u9686\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u653f\u5e9c\u7b49\u591a\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8363\u8a89\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u83b7\u5f972009\u5e74\u5370\u5b5a\u745f\u65af\u5956\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u5956\u9879\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u57c3\u4e1d\u7279\u00b7\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u963f\u535c\u675c\u52d2\u00b7\u62c9\u8482\u592b\u00b7\u8d3e\u7c73\u5c14\u6276\u8d2b\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u30021972\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u6cd5\u56fd\u5df4\u9ece\uff0c\u66fe\u5c31\u8bfb\u4e8e\u6cd5\u56fd\u5df4\u9ece\u9ad8\u7b49\u5e08\u8303\u5b66\u9662\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff0c1999\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u83b7\u5f972009\u5e74\u9ea6\u514b\u963f\u745f\u201c\u5929\u624d\u201d\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\u30012010\u5e74\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u8d1d\u8328\u00b7\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u5956\u7b49\u591a\u9879\u8363\u8a89\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u5956\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5c0f\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u201d\uff0c\u4ec5\u9881\u53d1\u7ed940\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c41\u4f4d\u5f97\u4e3b\u4e2d\u670913\u4f4d\u8363\u83b7\u8bfa\u5956\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u4ea6\u662f\u70ed\u95e8\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u5973\u6027\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u5e74\u4ec546\u5c81\uff0c\u800c\u5e73\u5747\u83b7\u5956\u5e74\u9f84\u4e3a67\u5c81\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57c3\u4e1d\u7279\u00b7\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u662f\u963f\u6bd4\u5409\u7279\u00b7\u5df4\u7eb3\u5409\uff0c\u4e8c\u4eba\u662f\u592b\u59bb\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u4e8b\uff0c\u80b2\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b69\u5b50\uff0c\u53ef\u8c13\u662f\u201c\u4e00\u95e8\u53cc\u8bfa\u5956\u201d\u3002\u73ed\u7eb3\u5409\u548c\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b\u5408\u4f5c\u7d27\u5bc6\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u8868\u5927\u91cf\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5408\u4f5c\u51fa\u7248\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u300a\u8d2b\u7a77\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6446\u8131\u4e0d\u4e86\u8d2b\u7a77\u300b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e2003\u5e74\u8054\u5408\u521b\u5efa\u963f\u535c\u675c\u52d2\u00b7\u62c9\u8482\u592b\u00b7\u8d3e\u7c73\u5c14\u8d2b\u56f0\u884c\u52a8\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff08J-PAL\uff09\u3002J-PAL\u786e\u4fdd\u6276\u8d2b\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u57fa\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u62d3\u5c55\u5de5\u4f5c\u904d\u53ca\u4ece\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5230\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u518d\u5230\u6cd5\u56fd\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u60e0\u53ca\u8d85\u8fc74\u4ebf\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u2022\u514b\u96f7\u9ed8<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u2022\u514b\u96f7\u9ed8\uff08Michael Kremer\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u793e\u4f1a\u76d6\u8328\u6559\u6388\u30021964\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u66fe\u5c31\u8bfb\u4e8e\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\uff0c1992\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff0c\u83b7\u9ea6\u514b\u963f\u745f\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u5b66\u9662\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\uff0c\u88ab\u63d0\u540d\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bba\u575b\u5168\u7403\u9752\u5e74\u9886\u8896\u3002\u5e2e\u52a9\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u9884\u5148\u5e02\u573a\u627f\u8bfa\uff08AMC\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u5bf9\u75ab\u82d7\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u75ab\u82d7\u5206\u53d1\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u4e8e2010\u5e74\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u5f00\u53d1\u7f72\uff08USAID\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u521b\u65b0\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\uff08DIV\uff09\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u79d1\u5b66\u603b\u76d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e09\u4f4d\u5f97\u5956\u8005\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u4eb2\u5bc6\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3001\u4e13\u8457\u7b49\u90fd\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e24\u4f4d\u6216\u4e09\u4f4d\u5f97\u5956\u8005\u5171\u540c\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\u662f\u5176\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f7f\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u56e0\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u72ec\u7acb\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e00\u5ea6\u6210\u4e3a\u663e\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8131\u79bb\u5b9e\u9645\u800c\u9010\u6e10\u6ca1\u843d\u3002\u73ed\u7eb3\u5409\u3001\u8fea\u5f17\u6d1b\u548c\u514b\u96f7\u9ed8\u4f7f\u5176\u91cd\u65b0\u7115\u53d1\u751f\u673a\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u662f\u5927\u5927\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u6297\u51fb\u5168\u7403\u8d2b\u56f0\u7684\u80fd\u529b<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e09\u4f4d\u5f97\u5956\u8005\u521b\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u3002\u6df1\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e61\u6751\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u7530\u91ce\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u968f\u673a\u5206\u7ec4\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u7b56\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u5185\u5bb9\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9488\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u5e38\u9047\u89c1\u7684\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u91c7\u7528\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u3001\u5c0f\u989d\u4fe1\u8d37\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u884c\u4e4b\u6709\u6548\u7684\u51cf\u8d2b\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u4e3a\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u501f\u9274\u3002<\/strong>\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u4ea7\u751f\u6df1\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u8865\u4e60\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3a\u5370\u5ea6\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u52a9\u6559\u8ba1\u5212\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u60e0\u53ca\u8d85\u8fc7500\u4e07\u5370\u5ea6\u513f\u7ae5\uff1b\u5173\u4e8e\u5bc4\u751f\u866b\u836f\u7269\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\u9a71\u866b\u4e3a\u5b66\u7ae5\u5e26\u6765\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u76ca\u5904\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7236\u6bcd\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e16\u754c\u536b\u751f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5df2\u7ecf\u5efa\u8bae\u54118\u4ebf\u591a\u5b66\u9f84\u513f\u7ae5\u514d\u8d39\u5206\u53d1\u9a71\u866b\u836f\u7269\uff1b\u53d1\u73b0\u5370\u5ea6\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u6cbb\u7406\u653f\u5e9c\u96c7\u5458\u65e0\u6545\u65f7\u5de5\u800c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u4e00\u5957\u751f\u7269\u4fe1\u606f\u8bc6\u522b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f2a\u9020\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ca\u65f6\u53eb\u505c\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u63a8\u5e7f\uff0c\u8282\u7701\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u4eba\u529b\u7269\u529b\u8d22\u529b\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"92793\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section data-brushtype=\"text\"><strong>2020<\/strong><strong>\u5e74\uff1a<\/strong><strong>\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\u548c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5a01\u5c14\u900a<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>2020\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u4fdd\u5c14\u00b7\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\u548c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5a01\u5c14\u900a\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u201c\u5bf9\u62cd\u5356\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u548c\u62cd\u5356\u65b0\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u201d\u3002\u4e24\u4f4d\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u62cd\u5356\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u5229\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\uff0c\u4e3a\u96be\u4ee5\u7528\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u5f0f\u9500\u552e\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u62cd\u5356\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u65e0\u7ebf\u7535\u9891\u7387\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u5356\u65b9\u3001\u4e70\u65b9\u548c\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<section data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"93040\">\n<section data-role=\"title\" data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\" data-color=\"#3774fe\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u4fdd\u5c14\u00b7\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section data-role=\"paragraph\">\u4fdd\u5c14\u00b7\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\uff08Paul Milgrom\uff09\uff0c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u5728\u62cd\u5356\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u673a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\u4eab\u6709\u76db\u8a89\u30021979\u5e74\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u5546\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u662f\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\u6559\u6388\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n<section>Paul Milgrom\u6559\u6388\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u5e7f\u6cdb\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u62cd\u5356\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u7b49\u3002\u4ed6\u4e0e\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7f57\u4f2f\u8328\uff08John Roberts\uff09\u5408\u8457\u7684\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66:\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u300b<em>\uff08Economics\uff0cOrganization\uff0cand Management\uff09<\/em>\uff081992\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u662f\u5341\u5206\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6559\u6750\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>1993\u5e74\uff0c\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\u63a5\u53d7\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u514b\u6797\u987f\u7684\u59d4\u6258\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e(FCC)\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u7535\u4fe1\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u7535\u4fe1\u8fd0\u8425\u6267\u7167\u7684\u62cd\u5356\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5929\u624d\u5730\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u62cd\u5356\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f7fFCC\u7684\u62cd\u5356\u5927\u83b7\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u62cd\u5356\u9886\u57df\u548c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7c73\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u53d1\u8868\u5728<em>Amerian Economic Review\uff0cEconometrica<\/em>\u7b49\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u662f\u6fc0\u52b1\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u8ba1\u5212\u3001\u62cd\u5356\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u4ed6\u56e0\u5728\u9891\u8c31\u62cd\u5356\u8bbe\u8ba1\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u4e8e\u4e16\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section data-role=\"title\" data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" data-id=\"85988\" data-color=\"#3774fe\">\n<section data-width=\"100%\">\n<section><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><strong>&gt;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section><strong>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5a01\u5c14\u900a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section data-role=\"paragraph\">\n<section>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5a01\u5c14\u900a1963\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u5a01\u5c14\u900a\u66fe\u5f53\u9009\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff081994\uff09\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff081999\uff09\u3002\u73b0\u4efb\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u3002\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u6559\u5b66\u6d89\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3001\u8c08\u5224\u3001\u53ca\u6709\u5173\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u65e9\u671f\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u7a81\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section>\u5a01\u5c14\u900a\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5305\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u6709\u5173\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff08nonlinear pricing\uff09\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u51761993\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5b9a\u4ef7\u300b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u754c\u548c\u5de5\u5546\u754c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u4e66\u3002\uff082\uff09\u5e8f\u8d2f\u5747\u8861\uff08sequential equilibrium\uff09\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u4ed6\u4e0e\u514b\u96f7\u666e\u65af\u4e00\u8d77\uff08Kreps &amp; Wilson,1982\uff09\u5171\u540c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5e8f\u8d2f\u5747\u8861\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u8be5\u601d\u60f3\u5bf9\u4e8e\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\uff08self-reinforcing\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u535a\u5f08\u4e2d\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u5229\u7528\u5e8f\u8d2f\u5747\u8861\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u5747\u8861\u3002\uff083\uff09\u6709\u5173\u62cd\u5356\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u5176\u6709\u5173\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u62cd\u5356\u673a\u5236\u3001\u53cc\u91cd\u62cd\u5356\u673a\u5236\u3001\u6574\u4f53\u62cd\u5356\u673a\u5236\u3001\u5206\u62c5\u62cd\u5356\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u5165\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5a01\u5c14\u900a\u8fd8\u4e0e\u7c73\u5c14\u683c\u7f57\u59c6\uff08P.Milgrom\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ea6\u5361\u83f2\uff08P.McAfee\uff09\u7b49\u5171\u540c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u901a\u8baf\u9891\u8c31\u62cd\u5356\u673a\u5236\u4ee5\u53ca\u53c2\u4e0e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7535\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/section>\n<section 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Angrist \u548c Guido W. Imbens<\/strong><\/section>\n<section>\n<section data-bgopacity=\"10%\" data-bgless=\"spin\" data-bglessp=\"240\"><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section data-role=\"paragraph\">\n<section>2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88David Card \uff0cJoshua D. Angrist \u548c Guido W. Imbens\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70David Card\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caJoshua D. Angrist\u548cGuido W. 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